PREDICTING FINANCIAL IMPACTS ON RURAL ROADS OF POTENTIAL RAIL LINE ABANDONMENTS

Private decisions by railroads to abandon rail lines are having significant impacts on public costs. Specifically, the increasing amount of rail line abandonments are exacerbating road deterioration, with resultant increase in costs of road maintenance and reconstruction. At this point the magnitude of financial impact on roads of such abandonments has been identified only in an "ex post" fashion. Information on road damage is needed by policy makers before such abandonment. In this paper, a procedure is developed that can be used to predict such road damage before its occurrence. A conceptual model is presented and then applied in a case study in Washington State. The model was slightly modified, based on the case study experience, and was found to achieve its purpose in an efficient fashion. It is suggested that similar procedures be developed to also predict safety, pollution, and economic development impacts of rail line abandonment.