Using GIS spatial analysis and logistic regression to predict the probabilities of human-caused grassland fires.

Abstract This study created a method to examine the probability of human-caused ignition in grassland in the east of Inner Mongolia, China. Spatial analysis was used to locate the human-caused ignition of grassland fires that occurred in the study areas during 1976–1996. The area was divided into grid cells, and for each grid cell the distances to various human-built infrastructure and weather factors were determined. Logistic regression was used to build a predictive model of the probability of human-caused ignition of grassland fires in each of the grid cells, using topography, distances, and weather factors as predictor variables. The probability of a grid cell ignition was positively correlated with temperature, and elevation; and negatively correlated with precipitation, relative humidity and distances to villages, dirt roads, railroads and isolated buildings. Grid cells were grouped into five classes of ignition probabilities, i.e. 0.8. These methods and results should be useful to local administrative managers in assessing initial ignition risk for grassland.

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