Estimating N: a robust approach to capture heterogeneity

We evaluate the performance of a new mixture model for heterogeneity in capture probability when estimating the size of a closed population of wild animals. The new model expresses the capture probability as a mixture of a binomial distribution and a beta-binomial distribution. For real data sets, it is shown how the new model can provide a suitable framework for model discrimination. When there is no best model from within the family of models represented by the new mixture, we recommend adopting a conservative approach to estimating population size.

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