Learning Network Traffic Dynamics Using Temporal Point Process

Accurate modeling of network traffic has a wide variety of applications. In this paper, we propose Network Transmission Point Process (NTPP), a probabilistic deep machinery that models the traffic characteristics of hosts on a network and effectively forecasts the network traffic patterns, such as load spikes. Existing stochastic models relied on the network traffic being self-similar in nature, thus failing to account for traffic anomalies. These anomalies, such as short-term traffic bursts, are very prevalent in certain modern-day traffic conditions, e.g. datacenter traffic, thus refuting the assumption of self-similarity. Our model is robust to such anomalies since it effectively leverages the self-exciting nature of the bursty network traffic using a temporal point process model.On seven diverse datasets collected from the fields of cyberdefense exercises (CDX), website access logs, datacenter traffic, and P2P traffic, NTPP offers a substantial performance boost in predicting network traffic characteristics against several baselines, ranging from forecasting the network traffic volume to detecting traffic spikes. We also demonstrate an application of our model to a caching scenario, showing that it can be used to effectively lower the cache miss rate.