Dynamic risk analysis of hydrogen gas leakage using Bow-tie technique and Bayesian network

The power plants of each country can be considered as one of the most important factors in economic development and growth of that country. Accidents at power plants are very dangerous and make their accessibility difficult. So, it is critical to be able to predict and appropriately assess the relevant risks. In this study, we focus on hydrogen gas leakage from chlorination unit as the study scenario to evaluate potential risk of accidents. We then use the Bow-tie technique and Bayesian Network analysis to determine the type and the relationship between the effective causes of the catastrophic accidents. According to Bayesian Network, decrease in flow rate in the ventilation system of the storage tank was identified as the most probable base event, and erupted fire/sudden fire/explosion were identified as the most probable consequences of occurrence of the top event. The use of Bayesian network could reduce parameter uncertainty through probability updating.

[1]  Mohammad Modarres,et al.  An event classification schema for evaluating site risk in a multi-unit nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[2]  V. Ebrahimipour,et al.  A new method for quantitative assessment of resilience engineering by PCA and NT approach: A case study in a process industry , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[3]  Finn V. Jensen,et al.  Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs , 2001, Statistics for Engineering and Information Science.

[4]  Faisal Khan,et al.  Failure probability analysis of the urban buried gas pipelines using Bayesian networks , 2017 .

[5]  Sohag Kabir,et al.  A fuzzy Bayesian network approach for risk analysis in process industries , 2017 .

[6]  Liqiong Chen,et al.  Fuzzy fault tree analysis for fire and explosion of crude oil tanks , 2013 .

[7]  Naixue Xiong,et al.  A Fuzzy Probability Bayesian Network Approach for Dynamic Cybersecurity Risk Assessment in Industrial Control Systems , 2018, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics.

[8]  Fang Zong,et al.  Prediction for Traffic Accident Severity: Comparing the Bayesian Network and Regression Models , 2013 .

[9]  Ali Azadeh,et al.  Integrated HSEE management systems for industry: A case study in gas refinary , 2009 .

[10]  Omid Kalatpour,et al.  Selecting Strategies to Reduce High-Risk Unsafe Work Behaviors Using the Safety Behavior Sampling Technique and Bayesian Network Analysis , 2017, Journal of research in health sciences.

[11]  Wei Ma,et al.  Study of hydrogen gas production coupled with phenol electrochemical oxidation degradation at different stages , 2014 .

[12]  Rouzbeh Abbassi,et al.  Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines , 2017, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[13]  Ralph Stuart,et al.  Using bowtie methodology to support laboratory hazard identification, risk management, and incident analysis , 2017 .

[14]  Ali Azadeh,et al.  Dynamic safety risk modeling of process systems using bayesian network , 2017 .

[15]  Nima Khakzad,et al.  System safety assessment under epistemic uncertainty: Using imprecise probabilities in Bayesian network , 2019, Safety Science.

[16]  Ali Azadeh,et al.  Integrated health, safety, environment and ergonomics management system (HSEE-MS): An efficient substitution for conventional HSE-MS , 2008 .

[17]  Sou-Sen Leu,et al.  Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects. , 2013, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[18]  Kaili Xu,et al.  Risk Assessment of Rail Haulage Accidents in Inclined Tunnels with Bayesian Network and Bow-Tie Model , 2018, Current Science.

[19]  S. Prakash,et al.  Development of a Site-Specific Kinetic Model for Chlorine Decay and the Formation of Chlorination By-Products in Seawater , 2015 .

[20]  K. K. Satapathy,et al.  Lethal and sub-lethal effects of chlorination on green mussel Perna viridis in the context of biofouling control in a power plant cooling water system. , 2002, Marine environmental research.

[21]  Xuanya Liu,et al.  Study of dynamic risk management system for flammable and explosive dangerous chemicals storage area , 2017 .

[23]  Zeynab Sadat Nezamodini,et al.  Fire and explosion risk assessment in a process unit using Dow’s Fire and Explosion Index , 2015 .

[24]  Seyed Hessameddin Zegordi,et al.  Power plant project risk assessment using a fuzzy-ANP and fuzzy-TOPSIS method , 2012 .

[25]  A. Adibzadeh,et al.  Predicting needlestick and sharps injuries and determining preventive strategies using a Bayesian network approach in Tehran, Iran , 2018, Epidemiology and health.

[26]  E. Rubin,et al.  The cost of carbon capture and storage for natural gas combined cycle power plants. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[27]  J. W. Esterline.  Some fundamental principles of power plant design , .

[28]  Maria Hänninen,et al.  Bayesian network model of maritime safety management , 2014, Expert Syst. Appl..

[29]  Nima Khakzad,et al.  Dynamic safety risk analysis of offshore drilling , 2014 .

[30]  Sou-Sen Leu,et al.  Bayesian updating of reliability of civil infrastructure facilities based on condition-state data and fault-tree model , 2009, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[31]  Mayank Tyagi,et al.  Quantification of Risks Associated With a Representative Production Well in the Gulf of Mexico , 2015 .

[32]  Guoming Chen,et al.  Dynamic Bayesian network based approach for risk analysis of hydrogen generation unit leakage , 2019, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy.

[33]  Sarah J. Dunnett,et al.  Event-tree analysis using binary decision diagrams , 2000, IEEE Trans. Reliab..

[34]  Nima Khakzad,et al.  Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches , 2011, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[35]  Faisal Khan,et al.  SHIPP methodology: Predictive accident modeling approach. Part II. Validation with case study , 2011 .

[36]  Omid Kalatpour,et al.  Analysis of human and organizational factors that influence mining accidents based on Bayesian network , 2018, International journal of occupational safety and ergonomics : JOSE.

[37]  Omid Kalatpour,et al.  Constructing a Bayesian network model for improving safety behavior of employees at workplaces. , 2017, Applied ergonomics.

[38]  Stanley S. Grossel.  Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis: 2nd Edition; By Center for Chemical Process Safety; American Institute of Chemical Engineers, New York, NY, 2000, pp. 750. , 2001 .

[39]  Qian Fan,et al.  A dynamic Bayesian networks modeling of human factors on offshore blowouts , 2013 .

[40]  Marta E. Torres,et al.  Chlorine use reduction in nuclear or conventional power plants: a combined cooling-and-stripping tower for coastal power plants , 2012 .

[41]  H. Aghaei,et al.  Analysis of occupational accidents among nurses working in hospitals based on safety climate and safety performance: a Bayesian network analysis , 2020, International journal of occupational safety and ergonomics : JOSE.

[42]  Xulei Wang,et al.  Analysis of Factors that Influence Hazardous Material Transportation Accidents Based on Bayesian Networks: A Case Study in China , 2012 .

[43]  Zerouali Bilal,et al.  Bayesian network and bow tie to analyze the risk of fire and explosion of pipelines , 2017 .

[44]  Abroon Qazi,et al.  Supply chain risk network management : a Bayesian belief network and expected utility based approach for managing supply chain risks , 2018 .

[45]  مصطفی میرزائی علی آبادی,et al.  Risk assessment of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage tanks in the process industries using the Bowtie technique , 2016 .

[46]  Justin Margret Jeffrey,et al.  Risk assessment of rail haulage accidents in inclined tunnels with Bayesian network and bow-tie model , 2018 .

[47]  James T. Reason,et al.  Managing the risks of organizational accidents , 1997 .

[48]  Iraj Mohammadfam,et al.  Developing an integrated decision making approach to assess and promote the effectiveness of occupational health and safety management systems , 2016 .

[49]  Jin Wang,et al.  Incorporation of formal safety assessment and Bayesian network in navigational risk estimation of the Yangtze River , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[50]  Yonghong Liu,et al.  Failure Probability Analysis for Emergency Disconnect of Deepwater Drilling Riser Using Bayesian Network , 2019, Bayesian Networks for Reliability Engineering.

[51]  Frank W. Guldenmund,et al.  The bowtie method: a review , 2016 .

[52]  Norman Fenton,et al.  Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks , 2012 .

[53]  Omid Kalatpour,et al.  Dynamic Human Error Assessment in Emergency Using Fuzzy Bayesian CREAM , 2020, Journal of research in health sciences.

[54]  M. Rausand.  Reliability of Safety-Critical Systems: Theory and Applications , 2014 .

[55]  Stephen Butt,et al.  Safety and risk analysis of managed pressure drilling operation using Bayesian network , 2015 .

[56]  Hacene Smadi,et al.  Bayesian Belief Network Used in the Chemical and Process Industry: A Review and Application , 2017, Journal of Failure Analysis and Prevention.

[57]  Faisal Khan,et al.  Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network , 2013 .