Multivariate time series anomaly detection: A framework of Hidden Markov Models

Abstract In this study, we develop an approach to multivariate time series anomaly detection focused on the transformation of multivariate time series to univariate time series. Several transformation techniques involving Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering and fuzzy integral are studied. In the sequel, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), one of the commonly encountered statistical methods, is engaged here to detect anomalies in multivariate time series. We construct HMM-based anomaly detectors and in this context compare several transformation methods. A suite of experimental studies along with some comparative analysis is reported.

[1]  Shyi-Ming Chen,et al.  Fuzzy Forecasting Based on Two-Factors Second-Order Fuzzy-Trend Logical Relationship Groups and the Probabilities of Trends of Fuzzy Logical Relationships , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics.

[2]  P. Filzmoser A MULTIVARIATE OUTLIER DETECTION METHOD , 2004 .

[3]  Sanjay Kumar,et al.  Fuzzy time series forecasting method based on hesitant fuzzy sets , 2016, Expert Syst. Appl..

[4]  Naoya Takeishi,et al.  Anomaly detection from multivariate time-series with sparse representation , 2014, 2014 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC).

[5]  Paul D. Gader,et al.  Adaptive Local Fusion With Fuzzy Integrals , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems.

[6]  M. Sugeno,et al.  Fuzzy measure analysis of public attitude towards the use of nuclear energy , 1986 .

[7]  Shan Liu,et al.  An effective multivariate time series classification approach using echo state network and adaptive differential evolution algorithm , 2016, Expert Syst. Appl..

[8]  Hei-Chia Wang,et al.  Combining subjective and objective QoS factors for personalized web service selection , 2007, Expert Syst. Appl..

[9]  Tiejun Zhao,et al.  Self-adaptive statistical process control for anomaly detection in time series , 2016, Expert Syst. Appl..

[10]  Jr. G. Forney,et al.  The viterbi algorithm , 1973 .

[11]  Rongrong Fu,et al.  Dynamic driver fatigue detection using hidden Markov model in real driving condition , 2016, Expert Syst. Appl..

[12]  Miin-Shen Yang,et al.  A similarity measure of intuitionistic fuzzy sets based on the Sugeno integral with its application to pattern recognition , 2012, Inf. Sci..

[13]  Roberto Rosas-Romero,et al.  Forecasting of stock return prices with sparse representation of financial time series over redundant dictionaries , 2016, Expert Syst. Appl..

[14]  Zeshui Xu,et al.  An overview of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information aggregations and applications , 2016, Granular Computing.

[15]  M. Sugeno,et al.  An interpretation of fuzzy measures and the Choquet integral as an integral with respect to a fuzzy , 1989 .

[16]  G. Reinsel Elements of Multivariate Time Series Analysis , 1995 .

[17]  James C. Bezdek,et al.  On cluster validity for the fuzzy c-means model , 1995, IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst..

[18]  B. Helliker,et al.  Subtropical to boreal convergence of tree-leaf temperatures , 2008, Nature.

[19]  James M. Keller,et al.  Information fusion in computer vision using the fuzzy integral , 1990, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern..

[20]  Jong-Hwan Kim,et al.  Fuzzy Integral-Based Gaze Control of a Robotic Head for Human Robot Interaction , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics.

[21]  Pang-Ning Tan,et al.  Detection and Characterization of Anomalies in Multivariate Time Series , 2009, SDM.

[22]  Salim Lahmiri,et al.  A variational mode decompoisition approach for analysis and forecasting of economic and financial time series , 2016, Expert Syst. Appl..

[23]  Ammar Belatreche,et al.  Adaptive Hidden Markov Model With Anomaly States for Price Manipulation Detection , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems.

[24]  Shyi-Ming Chen,et al.  Fuzzy time series forecasting based on fuzzy logical relationships and similarity measures , 2016, Inf. Sci..

[25]  Qiang Zhang,et al.  Intuitionistic fuzzy-valued Choquet integral and its application in multicriteria decision making , 2013, Inf. Sci..

[26]  Simon Fong,et al.  Financial time series pattern matching with extended UCR Suite and Support Vector Machine , 2016, Expert Syst. Appl..

[27]  Spiros Papadimitriou,et al.  Computing Correlation Anomaly Scores Using Stochastic Nearest Neighbors , 2007, Seventh IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM 2007).

[28]  Woo Gon Kim,et al.  The impact of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic forces on hotel stock returns , 2004, International Journal of Hospitality Management.

[29]  Pawan Lingras,et al.  Granular meta-clustering based on hierarchical, network, and temporal connections , 2016 .

[30]  Naomie Salim,et al.  Detection of fake opinions using time series , 2016, Expert Syst. Appl..

[31]  Robert J. Elliott,et al.  A Double HMM approach to Altman Z-scores and credit ratings , 2014, Expert Syst. Appl..

[32]  Lawrence R. Rabiner,et al.  A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition , 1989, Proc. IEEE.

[33]  Huajing Fang,et al.  Diversified learning for continuous hidden Markov models with application to fault diagnosis , 2015, Expert Syst. Appl..

[34]  Fernando Gomide,et al.  Evolving granular analytics for interval time series forecasting , 2016, Granular Computing.

[35]  Ting Zhang,et al.  Study on optimum fusion algorithms of IKONOS high spatial resolution remote sensing image , 2011, 2011 International Conference on Multimedia Technology.

[36]  C. L. Philip Chen,et al.  A Multiple-Kernel Fuzzy C-Means Algorithm for Image Segmentation , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B (Cybernetics).

[37]  Hubert Razik,et al.  Hidden Markov Models for the Prediction of Impending Faults , 2016, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[38]  Daniel Nikovski,et al.  Exemplar learning for extremely efficient anomaly detection in real-valued time series , 2015, Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery.

[39]  C. L. Philip Chen,et al.  A Collaborative Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm in Distributed Network Environments , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems.

[40]  Yan Liu,et al.  Granger Causality for Time-Series Anomaly Detection , 2012, 2012 IEEE 12th International Conference on Data Mining.

[41]  C. L. Philip Chen,et al.  Gradient Radial Basis Function Based Varying-Coefficient Autoregressive Model for Nonlinear and Nonstationary Time Series , 2015, IEEE Signal Processing Letters.

[42]  Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng,et al.  A fuzzy integral-based model for supplier evaluation and improvement , 2014, Inf. Sci..

[43]  Gholamali Heydari,et al.  Chaotic time series prediction via artificial neural square fuzzy inference system , 2016, Expert Syst. Appl..