Use of an Analogue Procedure to Formulate Objective Probabilistic Temperature Forecasts in The Netherlands

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to describe some results of a study in which an analogue procedure developed in The Netherlands is used to formulate objective probabilistic temperature forecasts on an experimental basis. As currently employed, the procedure routinely provides forecasters at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute with guidance information that summarizes, for days 11 through 6, the weather conditions associated with the best thirty analogues of the corresponding forecast situation. In the work reported here, the empirical frequency distribution of maximum temperature corresponding to these thirty analogues is used to generate both categorical and probabilistic forecasts of this element. Attention is focused on three types of probabilistic forecasts of maximum temperature: 1) a discrete distribution for five temperature classes 2) a variable-width credible interval., and 3) a fixed-width credible interval. Results of the experiment indicate that all three types of probabilisti...