Journal of Mathematical Psychology Categorization with Limited Resources: a Family of Simple Heuristics

Abstract In categorization tasks where resources such as time, information, and computation are limited, there is pressure to be accurate, and stakes are high–as when deciding if a patient is under high risk of having a disease or if a worker should undergo retraining–, it has been proposed that people use, or should use, simple adaptive heuristics. We introduce a family of deterministic, noncompensatory heuristics, called fast and frugal trees, and study them formally. We show that the heuristics require few resources and are also relatively accurate. First, we characterize fast and frugal trees mathematically as lexicographic heuristics and as noncompensatory linear models, and also show that they exploit cumulative dominance (the results are interpreted in the language of the paired comparison literature). Second, we show, by computer simulation, that the predictive accuracy of fast and frugal trees compares well with that of logistic regression (proposed as a descriptive model for categorization tasks performed by professionals) and of classification and regression trees (used, outside psychology, as prescriptive models).

[1]  Frank Kee,et al.  Fast and Frugal Models of Clinical Judgment in Novice and Expert Physicians , 2003, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[2]  F. Gregory Ashby,et al.  Multidimensional models of categorization. , 1992 .

[3]  John R. Anderson,et al.  The Adaptive Nature of Human Categorization. , 1991 .

[4]  D R Mehr,et al.  What alters physicians' decisions to admit to the coronary care unit? , 1997, The Journal of family practice.

[5]  P. Todd,et al.  Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart , 1999 .

[6]  F. Ashby,et al.  Categorization as probability density estimation , 1995 .

[7]  R. Selten,et al.  Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox , 2000 .

[8]  R B D'Agostino,et al.  A comparison of logistic regression to decision-tree induction in a medical domain. , 1993, Computers and biomedical research, an international journal.

[9]  R. Nosofsky,et al.  A rule-plus-exception model for classifying objects in continuous-dimension spaces , 1998 .

[10]  Refractor Vision , 2000, The Lancet.

[11]  R. Dawes Judgment under uncertainty: The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making , 1979 .

[12]  B. Newell,et al.  Take the best or look at the rest? Factors influencing "one-reason" decision making. , 2003, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[13]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  “Take-the-Best” and Other Simple Strategies: Why and When they Work “Well” with Binary Cues , 2006 .

[14]  Michael D. Lee,et al.  Sequential sampling models of human text classification , 2003, Cogn. Sci..

[15]  Juan A. Carrasco,et al.  Cumulative dominance and heuristic performance in binary multi-attribute choice , 2006 .

[16]  U. Hoffrage,et al.  Fast, frugal, and fit: Simple heuristics for paired comparison , 2002 .

[17]  David L. Faigman,et al.  Human category learning. , 2005, Annual review of psychology.

[18]  Mandeep K. Dhami,et al.  Fast and frugal versus regression models of human judgement , 2001 .

[19]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Heuristic and linear models of judgment: matching rules and environments. , 2007, Psychological review.

[20]  A. Garnham,et al.  Thinking and Reasoning , 1994 .

[21]  H. J. Einhorn The use of nonlinear, noncompensatory models in decision making. , 1970, Psychological bulletin.

[22]  A. Bröder Assessing the empirical validity of the "take-the-best" heuristic as a model of human probabilistic inference. , 2000, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[23]  B. Newell,et al.  Empirical tests of a fast-and-frugal heuristic: Not everyone "takes-the-best" , 2003 .

[24]  Anne Lohrli Chapman and Hall , 1985 .

[25]  A. Bröder Decision making with the "adaptive toolbox": influence of environmental structure, intelligence, and working memory load. , 2003, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[26]  Laura Martignon,et al.  Naive and Yet Enlightened: From Natural Frequencies to Fast and Frugal Decision Trees , 2003 .

[27]  L. Martignon,et al.  Use of simple heuristics to target macrolide prescription in children with community-acquired pneumonia. , 2002, Archives of pediatrics & adolescent medicine.

[28]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less “more”? , 2005 .

[29]  Browne,et al.  Cross-Validation Methods. , 2000, Journal of mathematical psychology.

[30]  K. Lamberts Information-accumulation theory of speeded categorization. , 2000, Psychological review.

[31]  Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos,et al.  Naïve heuristics for paired comparisons: Some results on their relative accuracy , 2006 .

[32]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats , 1995 .

[33]  R B D'Agostino,et al.  The usefulness of a predictive instrument to reduce inappropriate admissions to the coronary care unit. , 1980, Annals of internal medicine.

[34]  L. Macchi,et al.  Thinking : psychological perspectives on reasoning, judgment and decision making , 2005 .

[35]  Kenneth Gilhooly,et al.  Regression versus fast and frugal models of decision-making : the case of prescribing for depression , 2006 .

[36]  Koen Lamberts,et al.  Categorization under time pressure. , 1995 .

[37]  Douglas L. Medin,et al.  Context theory of classification learning. , 1978 .

[38]  Vladimir N. Vapnik,et al.  The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory , 2000, Statistics for Engineering and Information Science.

[39]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  Simple Models for Multiattribute Choice with Many Alternatives: When It Does and Does Not Pay to Face Trade-offs with Binary Attributes , 2005, Manag. Sci..

[40]  I. J. Myung,et al.  GUEST EDITORS' INTRODUCTION: Special Issue on Model Selection , 2000 .

[41]  D. A. Preece,et al.  Identification Keys and Diagnostic Tables: a Review , 1980 .

[42]  Peter M. Todd,et al.  Categorization by elimination : Using few cues to choose , 1999 .

[43]  K. Dieussaert,et al.  Proceedings of the 26th annual conference of the cognitive science society , 2004 .

[44]  Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos,et al.  New tools for decision analysts , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans.

[45]  R. Nosofsky,et al.  An exemplar-based random walk model of speeded classification. , 1997, Psychological review.

[46]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  The adaptive decision maker , 1993 .

[47]  R. Nosofsky American Psychological Association, Inc. Choice, Similarity, and the Context Theory of Classification , 2022 .

[48]  Ulrich Hoffrage,et al.  Why does one-reason decision making work? A case study in ecological rationality , 1999 .

[49]  Magnus Persson,et al.  PROBabilities from EXemplars (PROBEX): a "lazy" algorithm for probabilistic inference from generic knowledge , 2002 .

[50]  M. Lee,et al.  Evidence accumulation in decision making: Unifying the “take the best” and the “rational” models , 2004, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[51]  G Gigerenzer,et al.  Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality. , 1996, Psychological review.

[52]  Iver Mysterud,et al.  Take the best , 2000 .

[53]  Peter Grünwald,et al.  Accumulative prediction error and the selection of time series models , 2006 .

[54]  Leo Breiman,et al.  Classification and Regression Trees , 1984 .

[55]  Mandeep K. Dhami,et al.  Psychological Models of Professional Decision Making , 2003, Psychological science.

[56]  Thomas G. Dietterich What is machine learning? , 2020, Archives of Disease in Childhood.

[57]  Y. Rosseel Mixture models of categorization , 2002 .