Monte Carlo simulation techniques and electric utility resource decisions
暂无分享,去创建一个
This paper explores the use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques as an approach to electric utility integrated resource planning (IRP) that explicitly identifies key risks imposed on decision makers and/or shareholders. We discuss in general methods of examining risk, including sensitivity analysis, decision analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. We also present an example of how Monte Carlo simulation can be used in the context of resource planning. When used in conjunction with a model that captures the main engineering, economic and financial operations of a utility, Monte Carlo simulation can be used to account for planning uncertainties and examine tradeoffs between expected costs and risk.
[1] Horst Siebert,et al. Risk and the Political Economy of Resource Development , 1984 .
[2] Neil Seitz. Capital budgeting and long-term financing decisions , 1990 .
[3] G. Campbell Watkins,et al. Risk and the Rate of Return on Arctic Natural Gas: An Illustrative Analysis , 1984 .
[4] Max Henrion,et al. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis , 1990 .