Challenges to World Agriculture in the 21 st Century by

Challenge I: Global Food Security The first and continuing challenge facing world agriculture is to produce enough food to feed the growing world population. World population could reach eight billion people by 2025. Nearly all of the increase of two billion people in the next 25 years will be in developing countries. The urban population in developing countries will rise by a like number. The implications of urbanization are significant for the food system. It is estimated that people living in rural areas depend on their own production for more than 60 percent of their food supply (only 40 percent is purchased in the market). People living in urban areas, however, depend on the market for close to 90 percent of their food supply. So every time one person moves from a rural to an urban setting, needed market supplies must increase by a factor of two. Where will this food come from? If trends of the last 50 years continue, expanded trade will not be the answer. Since 1960 world grain production has more than doubled, and world grain trade also doubled. Thus the share of world grain consumption that is traded remained constant at about ten percent. This says that on average, 90 percent of the world food production is consumed in the country where it is produced. If this trend continues, then it is clear that most of the increase in the food production must come from production systems in the countries where the additional people will live. And where will they live? Most of the population growth between 2000 and 2030 will occur between the Tropic of Capricorn and the Tropic of Cancer, in countries that are still experiencing rapid population growth. Putting these two “facts” together suggests that most of the food needed to meet increased needs in the next 25 years must be produced in tropical and subtropical farming systems. We know that these systems are complex, highly heterogeneous, fragile, generally low in productivity, and dominated by small-scale, poor farmers. And to make continued on page 2 Inside..............................