Decision support for managing interruptions in industrial supply chains

Societies in developed countries depend heavily on the safe and secured operation of critical infrastructures such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, traffic and food and water supply, as well as social and medical care systems. Critical infrastructure (CI) can be severely damaged, destroyed or disrupted by technical failure (accidents), human failure (negligence), natural disasters, criminal activity or acts of terrorism which may lead to supply interruptions (EC, 2005). Interruptions within critical infrastructures may have a severe impact on industry and the economy, as well as the society as a whole. Due to an increased level of interdependencies between the various infrastructure sectors, the potential for cascading failure across mutually dependent systems is perhaps the most notable problem (Murray and Grubesic, 2007; UNISDR, 2002). Interruptions of infrastructure are often caused by extreme weather events like storms, snowfall, hail or periods of extreme temperatures. It is expected that due to climate change such extreme weather conditions will occur more frequently in the near future and thereby provoke an increased number of abnormal events within the sector of critical infrastructures (EEA, 2004). Affecting essentially all parts of society, economy or industry, energy supply is a very important part of critical infrastructure (Holmgren, 2007). An area-wide, secure electricity supply is essential for the functioning of a modern society (CEC, 2000). Thus, crisis situations in the energy sector constitute a special challenge. In Figure 1 potential cascading effects of a disruption of electricity supply are shown.