Games With Estimation of Non-Damage Objectives

Games against nature illustrate the role of non-damage objectives in producing conflict with uncertain rewards and the role of probing and estimation in reducing that uncertainty and restoring optimal strategies. This note discusses two essential elements of the analysis of crisis stability omitted from current treatments based on first strike stability: the role of an objective that motivates conflicts sufficiently serious to lead to conflicts, and the process of sequential interactions that could cause those conflicts to deepen. Games against nature illustrate role of objectives and uncertainty that are at the core of detailed treatments of crisis stability. These models can also illustrate how these games processes can generate and deepen crises and the optimal strategies that might be used to end them. This note discusses two essential elements of the analysis of crisis stability that are omitted from current treatments based on first strike stability: anon-damage objective that motivates conflicts sufficiently serious to lead to conflicts, and the process of sequential tests that could cause those conflicts to deepen. The model used is a game against nature, simplified sufficiently to make the role of each of those elements obvious.