A Piecewise Grey System Model for Study the Effects of Anthropogenic Activities on Karst Hydrological Processes

Sustainable groundwater development must rely on a good understanding of hydrological processes, especially under effects of anthropogenic activities. This paper develops a piecewise analysis based on grey system model for study effects of anthropogenic activities on hydrological processes. The time series of precipitation and spring discharge were segmented into three time periods depending on whether variations are due to climate variation: the predevelopment stage, the transition stage, and the new equilibrium stage. Then we modeled hydrological process of the predevelopment stage and new equilibrium stage by the grey system model. By comparing the model results, we can quantify the effects of human activities on hydrological processes. We applied the model to Liulin Springs China. The results indicated that the hydraulic response time of the spring discharge to precipitation from the predevelopment stage to the new equilibrium stage, ranges from less than 1 year to up to 4 years. The results revealed that human activities slow the groundwater flow. GM (1,N) models of Liulin Springs discharge showed that the driving coefficients of precipitation to the spring discharge decreased from 0.012272 in the predevelopment stage to 0.007753 in the new equilibrium stage, which means that groundwater recharge ability has reduced about 36.82 %. Human activities in Liulin Springs have drastically changed the groundwater system. Piecewise grey system model is a robust method for hydrological process simulation.

[1]  Athanasios Loukas,et al.  Optimal Management of an Overexploited Aquifer under Climate Change: The Lake Karla Case , 2013, Water Resources Management.

[2]  V. Singh,et al.  Review on Regional Water Resources Assessment Models under Stationary and Changing Climate , 2004 .

[3]  Emilio Custodio,et al.  Aquifer overexploitation: what does it mean? , 2002 .

[4]  Diana M. Allen,et al.  Groundwater sustainability strategies , 2010 .

[5]  N. Clifford.  Hydrology: the changing paradigm , 2002 .

[6]  Juan I. Ramos.  A piecewise-analytical method for singularly perturbed parabolic problems , 2005, Appl. Math. Comput..

[7]  Operational Prediction of Groundwater Fluctuation in South Florida using Sequence Based Markovian Stochastic Model , 2011 .

[8]  T. Yeh,et al.  Response of karst springs to climate change and anthropogenic activities: the Niangziguan Springs, China , 2009 .

[9]  Yan-xin Wang,et al.  Geostatistical and geochemical analysis of surface water leakage into groundwater on a regional scale: a case study in the Liulin karst system, northwestern China , 2001 .

[10]  M. Giordano,et al.  The agricultural groundwater revolution: opportunities and threats to development. , 2007 .

[11]  D. Hudson.  Fitting Segmented Curves Whose Join Points Have to Be Estimated , 1966 .

[12]  R. M. Davison,et al.  Sustainable groundwater development , 2002, Geological Society, London, Special Publications.

[13]  J. Mas-Pla,et al.  Basement Groundwater as a Complementary Resource for Overexploited Stream-Connected Alluvial Aquifers , 2012, Water Resources Management.

[14]  Kees Wevers,et al.  Grey System Theory and Applications: A Way Forward , 2007 .

[15]  David Seckler,et al.  The global groundwater situation: overview of opportunities and challenges , 2000 .

[16]  N. Mylopoulos,et al.  A Stochastic Optimization Approach in the Design of an Aquifer Remediation under Hydrogeologic Uncertainty , 1999 .

[17]  Yonghong Hao,et al.  Karst Hydrological Processes and Grey System Model1 , 2012 .

[18]  A Generalized Predictive Model of Water Table Fluctuations in Anisotropic Aquifer Due to Intermittently Applied Time-Varying Recharge from Multiple Basins , 2012, Water Resources Management.

[19]  Yonghong Hao,et al.  A gray system model for studying the response to climatic change: The Liulin karst springs, China , 2006 .

[20]  Yi Lin,et al.  Grey Information - Theory and Practical Applications , 2005, Advanced Information and Knowledge Processing.

[21]  Eloise Kendy,et al.  Groundwater depletion: A global problem , 2005 .

[22]  Peter H. Gleick,et al.  Making Every Drop Count. , 2001 .

[23]  L. Lundy,et al.  Integrating sciences to sustain urban ecosystem services , 2011 .

[24]  P. Bauer‐Gottwein,et al.  The influence of conceptual model uncertainty on management decisions for a groundwater-dependent ecosystem in karst , 2011 .

[25]  Sarah Praskievicz,et al.  A review of hydrological modelling of basin-scale climate change and urban development impacts , 2009 .

[26]  Daniel P. Loucks,et al.  Sustainable Water Resources Management , 2000 .

[27]  F. Kalf,et al.  Applicability and methodology of determining sustainable yield in groundwater systems , 2005 .

[28]  R. Quandt.  The Estimation of the Parameters of a Linear Regression System Obeying Two Separate Regimes , 1958 .

[29]  Nilgun B. Harmancioglu,et al.  Sustainability Issues in Water Management , 2013, Water Resources Management.