Otimização dos custos de frota urbana com uso de modelo combinado de life cycle cost e simulação de Monte Carlo

The optimization of the annual average cost for a bus fleet had become an important issue for the managers of transport companies worldwide. Currently, there are several available tools to support managerial decision making. One of the most used techniques to analyze is the deterministic method named “Life Cycle Cost” which allows the user to assess the replacement moment. However, this method is limited because it does not consider all the possible intrinsic variations in the equipment or the possible modifications in the utilization level. This paper objective is to develop a tool to support asset’s management through the combination of the Life Cycle Cost and the Monte Carlo Simulation approaches, which forms a stochastic analytical model that considers age, annual mileage for the optimal replacement fleet. For this paper’s development, data obtained from a Brazilian company were employed. The results show that the use of this combined tool is more efficient that the deterministic model.