Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for gas and brine migration at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Permeable shaft with panel seals

Abstract Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis, stepwise regression analysis and examination of scatter plots are used in conjunction with the BRAGFLO model to examine two-phase (i.e., gas and brine) flow at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), which is being developed by the US Department of Energy as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. The following topics are investigated to develop insights on factors that are potentially important in establishing compliance with applicable regulations of the US Environmental Protection Agency (i.e., 40 CFR 191, Subpart B; 40 CFR 268): (1) gas production due to corrosion of steel; (2) gas production due to microbial degradation of cellulosics; and (3) gas migration through a sealed shaft to the Culebra Dolomite. Important variables identified in the analysis include initial brine saturation of the waste, stoichiometric terms for corrosion of steel and microbial degradation of cellulosics, and seal permeabilities.

[1]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques for use in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal , 1993 .

[2]  R. Iman,et al.  A distribution-free approach to inducing rank correlation among input variables , 1982 .

[3]  M. Molecke,et al.  Gas generation from transuranic waste degradation: data summary and interpretation , 1979 .

[4]  Ronald L. Iman,et al.  FORTRAN 77 program and user's guide for the calculation of partial correlation and standardized regression coefficients , 1985 .

[5]  Norman R. Draper,et al.  Applied regression analysis (2. ed.) , 1981, Wiley series in probability and mathematical statistics.

[6]  C. Voss,et al.  SUTRA (Saturated-Unsaturated Transport). A Finite-Element Simulation Model for Saturated-Unsaturated, Fluid-Density-Dependent Ground-Water Flow with Energy Transport or Chemically-Reactive Single-Species Solute Transport. , 1984 .

[7]  J. W. Garner,et al.  Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in a preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1993 .

[8]  R. Iman,et al.  The Use of the Rank Transform in Regression , 1979 .

[9]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Risk, Uncertainty in Risk, and the EPA Release Limits for Radioactive Waste Disposal , 1993 .

[10]  M. G. Marietta,et al.  Preliminary comparison with 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1990 , 1990 .

[11]  R. L. Hunter,et al.  Systems analysis, long-term radionuclide transport, and dose assessments, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), southeastern New Mexico; March 1989 , 1989 .

[12]  S. G. Bertram-Howery,et al.  Preliminary plan for disposal-system characterization and long-term performance evaluation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1989 .

[13]  F. David,et al.  Tables of the Ordinates and Probability Integral of the Distribution of the Correlation Coefficient in Small Samples , 1938 .

[14]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Preliminary comparison with 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1991. Volume 4, Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results , 1992 .

[15]  Ronald L. Iman,et al.  A FORTRAN-77 PROGRAM AND USER'S GUIDE FOR THE GENERATION OF LATIN HYPERCUBE AND RANDOM SAMPLES FOR USE WITH COMPUTER MODELS , 1984 .

[16]  M. G. Marietta,et al.  Effect of alternative conceptual models in a preliminary performance assessment for the waste isolation pilot plant , 1995 .

[17]  N. Draper,et al.  Applied Regression Analysis , 1966 .

[18]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Treatment of Uncertainty in Performance Assessments for Complex Systems , 1994 .

[19]  Henry B. Crichlow,et al.  Modern reservoir engineering: A simulation approach , 1977 .

[20]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Sensitivity analysis techniques and results for performance assessment at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1991 .