Sustainability in the prospective scenarios methods: A case study of scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil, for 2030

Abstract In order to build prospective scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil, with a sustainable perspective, it was necessary to develop a cross-disciplinary work to include Sachs’ dimensions of sustainability into the scenarios method. This meant linking concepts from different disciplines, without transforming it in a new discipline. In order to support the proposition for the new method, a study case is presented, the framework for the biodiesel scenarios in Brazil, by 2030. An in-depth interview was used to test the proposition of having the sustainability dimensions as driving forces. The result was the identification of a critical uncertainty composed of various aspects related the response to climate change and environmental conservation. The scenario storylines that were developed based on the critical uncertainties showed that sustainable options for the future are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual. The results show that the scenarios storylines go through social, environmental and economic aspects, supported by other aspects like the territorial and political. Also it showed that sustainable options are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual.

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