Mandatory seat belt laws in eight states: a time-series evaluation☆

We examined state-specific and aggregate effects of U.S. legislation requiring the use of seat belts among front-seat motor vehicle occupants. Effects of compulsory seat belt use on the number of occupants fatally injured in traffic crashes were examined in the first eight states adopting such laws. Monthly data on crash fatalities between January 1976 and June 1986 were analyzed using Box-Tiao intervention analysis time-series methods. Because the new laws apply only to front-seat occupants, front-seat occupant fatalities were compared with: (1) rear-seat fatalities; (2) nonoccupant fatalities (motorcyclists, pedalcyclists, pedestrians); and (3) fatalities among front-seat occupants in neighboring states without compulsory seat belt use. Exposure to risk of crash involvement was controlled by analyzing fatality rates per vehicle mile traveled. Results revealed a statistically significant decline of 8.7% in the rate of front-seat fatalities in the first eight states with seat belt laws. The fatality rate declined 9.9% in states with primary enforcement laws and 6.8% in states with secondary enforcement only. Rates of rear-seat and non-occupant fatalities did not change when the belt laws were implemented.

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