Design of an Agent-Based Model to Examine Population-Environment Interactions in Nang Rong District, Thailand.

The design of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) is described that integrates Social and Land Use Modules to examine population-environment interactions in a former agricultural frontier in Northeastern Thailand. The ABM is used to assess household income and wealth derived from agricultural production of lowland, rain-fed paddy rice and upland field crops in Nang Rong District as well as remittances returned to the household from family migrants who are engaged in off-farm employment in urban destinations. The ABM is supported by a longitudinal social survey of nearly 10,000 households, a deep satellite image time-series of land use change trajectories, multi-thematic social and ecological data organized within a GIS, and a suite of software modules that integrate data derived from an agricultural cropping system model (DSSAT - Decision Support for Agrotechnology Transfer) and a land suitability model (MAXENT - Maximum Entropy), in addition to multi-dimensional demographic survey data of individuals and households. The primary modules of the ABM are the Initialization Module, Migration Module, Assets Module, Land Suitability Module, Crop Yield Module, Fertilizer Module, and the Land Use Change Decision Module. The architecture of the ABM is described relative to module function and connectivity through uni-directional or bi-directional links. In general, the Social Modules simulate changes in human population and social networks, as well as changes in population migration and household assets, whereas the Land Use Modules simulate changes in land use types, land suitability, and crop yields. We emphasize the description of the Land Use Modules - the algorithms and interactions between the modules are described relative to the project goals of assessing household income and wealth relative to shifts in land use patterns, household demographics, population migration, social networks, and agricultural activities that collectively occur within a marginalized environment that is subjected to a suite of endogenous and exogenous dynamics.

[1]  Hugh Kelley,et al.  Multi-scale analysis of a household level agent-based model of landcover change. , 2004, Journal of environmental management.

[2]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  Linking People, Place, and Policy , 2002 .

[3]  S. Walsh,et al.  Approaches for Linking People, Place, and Environment for Human Dimensions Research , 2003 .

[4]  William Salas,et al.  Physical and human dimensions of deforestation in Amazonia , 1994 .

[5]  R. Gil Pontius,et al.  Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA , 2001 .

[6]  Steven M. Manson,et al.  Agent-based modeling and genetic programming for modeling land change in the Southern Yucatán Peninsular Region of Mexico , 2005 .

[7]  Steven F. Railsback,et al.  Individual-based modeling and ecology , 2005 .

[8]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  Linking Household and Remotely Sensed Data , 2004 .

[9]  Joshua M. Epstein.  Agent-based computational models and generative social science , 1999 .

[10]  David R. Foster,et al.  Integrated land-change science and tropical deforestation in the southern Yucatán : final frontiers , 2004 .

[11]  J. Knodel.  Food and Population in a Northeast Thai Village , 1996 .

[12]  Robert P. Anderson,et al.  Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions , 2006 .

[13]  Supachai Pathumnakul,et al.  Application of crop growth simulation and mathematical modeling to supply chain management in the Thai sugar industry. , 2009 .

[14]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  Scale-Dependent Relationships between Population and Environment in Northeastern Thailand , 1999 .

[15]  A. Townsend Peterson,et al.  Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data , 2006 .

[16]  Kathrin Happe,et al.  An agent-based approach to modeling impacts of agricultural policy on land use, biodiversity and ecosystem services , 2012, Landscape Ecology.

[17]  François Bousquet,et al.  Multiagent simulations of hunting wild meat in a village in eastern Cameroon , 2001 .

[18]  Ronald R Rindfuss,et al.  Developing a science of land change: challenges and methodological issues. , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[19]  Richard E. Bilsborrow,et al.  The use of a multilevel statistical model to analyze factors influencing land use: a study of the Ecuadorian Amazon , 2005 .

[20]  William Rand,et al.  Spatial process and data models: Toward integration of agent-based models and GIS , 2005, J. Geogr. Syst..

[21]  B. Entwisle,et al.  Land Cover / Use and Population , 2012 .

[22]  Harris David,et al.  A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists , 2013 .

[23]  Philip H. Page,et al.  Complexity theory, spatial simulation models, and land use dynamics in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon , 2008 .

[24]  Thomas Rudel,et al.  Population, development, and tropical deforestation: a cross-national study , 1989 .

[25]  J. L. Rosenberger,et al.  Defining and Unraveling Biocomplexity , 2001 .

[26]  Stephen Lansing,et al.  Complex Adaptive Systems , 2003 .

[27]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  Frontier Land Use Change: Synthesis, Challenges, and Next Steps , 2007 .

[28]  F. Ellis.  Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries , 2000 .

[29]  Anne R. Pebley,et al.  Demography and the environment , 1998, Demography.

[30]  Steven J. Phillips,et al.  Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data. , 2009, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[31]  Philip H. Page,et al.  Population Growth and Its Spatial Distribution as Factors in the Deforestation of Nang Rong, Thailand. , 2008, Geoforum; journal of physical, human, and regional geosciences.

[32]  Yang Shao,et al.  Spatial clustering and urban settings of rural migrants in Bangkok, Thailand , 2008 .

[33]  Daniel G. Brown,et al.  Spatial simulation for translating from land use to land cover , 2004, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[34]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  A multiscale analysis of LULC and NDVI variation in Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand , 2001 .

[35]  P. Jones,et al.  The Evolution of Climate Over the Last Millennium , 2001, Science.

[36]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  Land-use/land-cover and population dynamics Nang Rong Thailand. , 1998 .

[37]  C. Willmott,et al.  Changes in Annual Land-Surface Precipitation Over the Twentieth and Early Twenty-First Century , 2010 .

[38]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  Assessing the application of a geographic presence-only model for land suitability mapping , 2011, Ecol. Informatics.

[39]  Miroslav Dudík,et al.  A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling , 2004, ICML.

[40]  Stephen J Walsh,et al.  Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent-Based Model. , 2011, Applied geography.

[41]  A. Barbieri,et al.  Gender-specific out-migration, deforestation and urbanization in the Ecuadorian Amazon. , 2005, Global and planetary change.

[42]  Michael J. North,et al.  Experiences creating three implementations of the repast agent modeling toolkit , 2006, TOMC.

[43]  Economic Growth and the Rise of Forests , 2003 .

[44]  S. Walsh,et al.  Using stylized agent-based models for population–environment research: a case study from the Galápagos Islands , 2010, Population and environment.

[45]  Barbara Entwisle,et al.  Putting people into place , 2007, Demography.

[46]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  GIS and remote sensing applications in biogeography and ecology , 2001 .

[47]  Harold Brookfield,et al.  Land degradation and society , 1988 .

[48]  W. Parton,et al.  Land use change: complexity and comparisons , 2008, Journal of land use science.

[49]  W. S. Robinson.  Ecological correlations and the behavior of individuals. , 1950, International journal of epidemiology.

[50]  S. Ranamukhaarachchi,et al.  Assessment of the CERES-Rice model for rice production in the Central Plain of Thailand , 2001, The Journal of Agricultural Science.

[51]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  Continuous and Discrete: Where They Have Met in Nang Rong, Thailand , 2002 .

[52]  Philip H. Page,et al.  Spatial simulation modelling of land use/land cover change scenarios in northeastern Thailand: a cellular automata approach , 2006 .

[53]  Euel Elliott,et al.  Adaptive agents, intelligence, and emergent human organization: Capturing complexity through agent-based modeling , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[54]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  Biocomplexity in coupled human-natural systems: The study of population and environment interactions , 2008 .

[55]  Jianguo Liu,et al.  Changes in Human Population Structure: Implications for Biodiversity Conservation , 1999 .

[56]  Thomas Berger,et al.  Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: A simulation tool , 2001 .

[57]  M. Janssen,et al.  Multi-Agent Systems for the Simulation of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: A Review , 2003 .

[58]  Charles Dietzel,et al.  A Decade of SLEUTHing: Lessons Learned from Applications of a Cellular Automaton Land Use Change Model , 2004 .

[59]  Ashton M. Shortridge,et al.  Exploring Complexity in a Human–Environment System: An Agent-Based Spatial Model for Multidisciplinary and Multiscale Integration , 2005 .

[60]  P. Stern,et al.  People and pixels : linking remote sensing and social science , 1999 .

[61]  Doug Barnes,et al.  The Causes of Deforestation in Developing Countries , 1985 .

[62]  Eduardo S. Brondizio,et al.  The colonist footprint: toward a conceptual framework of land use and deforestation trajectories among small farmers in the Amazonian Frontier. , 2002 .

[63]  Diego Valbuena,et al.  An agent-based approach to explore the effect of voluntary mechanisms on land use change: a case in rural Queensland, Australia. , 2010, Journal of environmental management.

[64]  M. Macy,et al.  FROM FACTORS TO ACTORS: Computational Sociology and Agent-Based Modeling , 2002 .

[65]  M. Gutmann,et al.  Blowin' Down the Road: Investigating Bilateral Causality Between Dust Storms and Population in the Great Plains , 2003 .

[66]  J. Rigg.  Homogeneity and heterogeneity: an analysis of the nature of variation in northeastern Thailand , 1991 .

[67]  C. Montes,et al.  Rethinking the Galapagos Islands as a Complex Social-Ecological System: Implications for Conservation and Management , 2008 .

[68]  David A. Bennett,et al.  Agent-based modelling environment for spatial decision support , 2003, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[69]  Barbara Entwisle,et al.  Population and Upland Crop Production in Nang Rong, Thailand , 2005 .

[70]  B. Entwisle,et al.  Population and Environment in the U.S. Great Plains , 2005 .

[71]  P. Ehrlich,et al.  Human population and the global environment. , 1974, American scientist.

[72]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  Complexity at Advancing Ecotones and Frontiers , 2006 .

[73]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  Landscape Frontiers, Geography Frontiers: Lessons to Be Learned , 2006 .

[74]  L. A. Hunt,et al.  GUMCAS: a model describing the growth of cassava (Manihot esculenta L. Crantz) , 1994 .

[75]  Donald R. Nelson,et al.  Remote Sensing and GIs at Farm Property Level: Demography and Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon , 1999 .

[76]  Barbara Entwisle,et al.  Population Change and Landscape Dynamics: The Nang Rong, Thailand, Studies , 2005 .

[77]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  An agent-based model of household dynamics and land use change , 2008 .

[78]  Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez,et al.  Social Determinants of Deforestation in Developing Countries: A Cross-National Study , 1998 .

[79]  G. Daily,et al.  Effects of household dynamics on resource consumption and biodiversity , 2003, Nature.

[80]  N. Inman-Bamber.  Automatic plant extension measurement in sugarcane in relation to temperature and soil moisture , 1995 .

[81]  Jefferson Fox,et al.  People and the environment : approaches for linking household and community surveys to remote sensing and GIS , 2003 .

[82]  Barbara Entwisle,et al.  Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions , 2005 .

[83]  F. Ellis.  Household strategies and rural livelihood diversification , 1998 .