Analytical Long-Term Care Capacity Planning

This chapter discusses the use of analytical approaches for residential long-term care (LTC) capacity planning. The recommended method integrates demographic and survival analysis, discrete event simulation, and optimization. Through a case study based in British Columbia, Canada, it illustrates results of using this approach. Further, it discusses shortcomings of a fixed-ratio approach widely used in practice and the SIPP (stationary, independent, period by period) approach and its modifications developed in the call center literature. It also proposes an easy-to-use and effective planning method, the Average Flow Model. It concludes with a discussion of policy implications and extensions.

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