エネルギー供給システムの多段階拡張におけるロバスト最適設計(機械力学,計測,自動制御)

A robust optimal design method based on the minimax regret criterion is proposed for multistage expansion planning of energy supply systems. Under uncertain energy demands increasing stepwise, equipment capacities and utility contract demands as well as energy flow rates for each expansion period are determined in consideration of their hierarchical relationships to minimize the maximum regret in the annual total cost and satisfy all the possible energy demands for the whole planning period. This optimization problem is formulated as a kind of multilevel linear programming problem, and its solution is derived by repeatedly evaluating upper and lower bounds for the optimal value of the maximum regret. Through a numerical case study on a cogeneration system for district energy supply, features of the economic robustness and multistage expansion planning are clarified in relation to the uncertainty in energy demands and the number of years for expansion periods.