Probabilistic assessment of aircraft risk for nuclear power plants

&stract: The risk to the public flom an aircraft strikin~ a nuclear POwer plon t has been e valuoted in a qua. tified nnner. Aircraft acciden 1 &t. have ken analyzed to estimate the probability of an oircruft sttikin~ o Opical nucieur power plant at sites adjace” t to and mm OZ. from on aiwrt. In the e v.. t that on aimraft sm’kes o building, the resion of impact is Xenerally restricted to u /@al component, ~o modes of d~ificanr damage are delineated: (1) perforation a“d (2) Imal collapse, Methods have been developed to escimute the condin’onal probabilities of such srrutural damage n.wn an aixraft strike and probabiliw values calculated for o represenrative strut tire, Actual n’sk to the PUbiic (pro bability VS. rodioa.rive.releose ma~itide) my be esrimated porn a clossi. ficarion of critical Safew components bJ their srmcmrnl pmtectiofi ond the likely releose mo~imde i“ the event of their damage. All foreseeable releases either cause insiflificon 1 Off.Site dose or, for most sites, are associated with ucv low probabilities. A bn’ef evaluation shows that em upn impacl is Hot a siflificon r increme” t of risk, Comparison of these risks to $wially acceptable n’sk levels shows that reactor sites beyond 5 miles from an aivort or away from a busy air corridor should be mceptoblc, Other pore. rial sites need individual examination, and, in some cases, hardening of the srmcmre mq be necessay.