Variation in nicotine intake among U.S. cigarette smokers during the past 25 years: evidence from NHANES surveys.

OBJECTIVE To estimate changes in nicotine intakes among U.S. cigarette smokers from 1988 to 2012 with the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). METHODS NHANES provides data on nationally representative samples of cigarette smokers from the civilian noninstitutionalized U.S. population. A total of 4,304 smokers aged 20 years and older were studied in NHANES III 1988-1994 and 7,095 were studied in the continuous NHANES 1999-2012. We examined serum cotinine concentrations, daily cigarette consumption, and estimated nicotine intake per cigarette, with adjustment for sex, age, racial/ethnic background, level of education, and body mass index. RESULTS There was little overall change in nicotine intake from smoking cigarettes either in the U.S. population as a whole or in major racial/ethnic subgroups during the 25-year period from 1988. Serum cotinine averaged 223.7ng/mL (95% confidence interval [CI] = 216.1-231.3) in 1988-1994, which was not significantly different from the adjusted mean of 219.2ng/mL (95% CI = 214.1-224.4) in 1999-2012. During the same period, average daily cigarette consumption declined substantially, from 17.3 (95% CI = 16.5-18.0) in 1988-1994 to 12.3 (95% CI = 11.0-13.6) by 2012. Cotinine per cigarette smoked increased by some 42% between 1988-1994 and 2011-2012, from a geometric mean of 12.4 (95% CI = 11.7-13.1) to 17.6 (95% CI = 16.1-19.2). CONCLUSIONS Reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence since the late 1980s, changes in cigarette product design, and the widespread introduction of smoke-free policies have not had a significant impact on nicotine intakes among U.S. smokers. Reductions in cigarette consumption have been offset by increased nicotine intake per cigarette smoked.