Track circuit fault prediction method based on grey theory and expert system

Abstract Due to the lack of accurate state judgment and health analysis of equipment operation, track circuit implements the repair and maintenance strategy of fault repair or planned repair. For this reason, a novel track circuit fault prediction method is proposed based on grey theory and expert system. In the proposed method, the feature of grey prediction model is to establish dynamic differential equation and then predict its own development according to its own data. The dynamic prediction model with equal dimension is applied to improve original grey model. Based on the gray models, the expert system is used to simulate human experts to solve the problems in a professional field. It contains man-computer interface, inference engine, knowledge library, knowledge management system, interpretation module and dynamic database. The measurement data show this system can effectively predict several typical faults of HVAP track circuit, and prove the proposed system structure is effective. Such condition-based fault prognostic maintenance mechanism provides an effective solution to improve equipment maintenance efficiency, reduce maintenance cost and reduce equipment fault rate.

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