Creep and locking of a low‐angle normal fault: Insights from the Altotiberina fault in the Northern Apennines (Italy)

While low-angle normal faults have been recognized worldwide from geological studies, whether these structures are active or capable of generating big earthquakes is still debated. We provide new constraints on the role and modes of the Altotiberina fault (ATF) in accommodating extension in the Northern Apennines. We model GPS velocities to study block kinematics, faults slip rates and interseismic coupling of the ATF, which is active and accounts, with its antithetic fault, for a large part of the observed chain normal 3 mm/yr tectonic extension. A wide portion of the ATF creeps at the long-term slip rate (1.7 ± 0.3 mm/yr), but the shallow locked portions are compatible with M > 6.5 earthquakes. We suggest that positive stress accumulation due to ATF creep is most likely released by more favorable oriented splay faults, whose rupture may propagate downdip along low-angle normal fault surface and reduce the probability of occurrence of a seismic rupture of the shallower locked portion.

[1]  C. Collettini The mechanical paradox of low-angle normal faults: Current understanding and open questions , 2011 .

[2]  N. D’Agostino,et al.  Contemporary crustal extension in the Umbria–Marche Apennines from regional CGPS networks and comparison between geodetic and seismic deformation , 2009 .

[3]  G. Axen Low‐angle normal fault earthquakes and triggering , 1999 .

[4]  C. Collettini,et al.  Fault zone weakening and character of slip along low-angle normal faults: insights from the Zuccale fault, Elba, Italy , 2004, Journal of the Geological Society.

[5]  A. Rubin,et al.  Streaks of microearthquakes along creeping faults , 1999, Nature.

[6]  D. Albarello,et al.  Detection of Space and Time Heterogeneity in the Completeness of a Seismic Catalog by a Statistical Approach: An Application to the Italian Area , 2001 .

[7]  Mario Locati,et al.  CPTI15, the 2015 version of the Parametric Catalogue of Italian Earthquakes , 2016 .

[8]  A. Montanari,et al.  Syn‐convergent extension observed using the RETREAT GPS network, northern Apennines, Italy , 2012 .

[9]  C. Chiarabba,et al.  Deep structure and tectonics of the northern‐central Apennines as seen by regional‐scale tomography and 3‐D located earthquakes , 2013 .

[10]  P. Segall,et al.  Detection of a locked zone at depth on the Parkfield, California, segment of the San Andreas Fault , 1987 .

[11]  P. Gasperini,et al.  The Italian CMT dataset from 1977 to the present , 2006 .

[12]  G. Lavecchia,et al.  New criteria for seismotectonic zoning in central Italy: insights from the Umbria-Marche Apennines , 2002 .

[13]  Lin Ding,et al.  Convergence rate across the Nepal Himalaya and interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust: Implications for seismic hazard , 2011 .

[14]  G. King,et al.  STATIC STRESS CHANGES AND THE TRIGGERING OF EARTHQUAKES , 1994 .

[15]  C. Collettini Hypothesis for the mechanics and seismic behaviour of low-angle normal faults: the example of the Altotiberina fault Northern Apennines , 2002 .

[16]  E. Boschi,et al.  Experimental evidence for mantle drag in the Mediterranean , 2008 .

[17]  J. Rice,et al.  Repeating Earthquakes as Low-Stress-Drop Events at a Border between Locked and Creeping Fault Patches , 2001 .

[18]  Kinematic Barrier Constraints on the Magnitudes of Additional Great Earthquakes Off the East Coast of Japan , 2015 .

[19]  Y. Bock,et al.  Anatomy of apparent seasonal variations from GPS‐derived site position time series , 2001 .

[20]  Thomas F. Coleman,et al.  A Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient Approach to Linear Equality Constrained Minimization , 2001, Comput. Optim. Appl..

[21]  Cristiano Collettini,et al.  Fault structure, frictional properties and mixed-mode fault slip behavior , 2011 .

[22]  James H. Dieterich,et al.  Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering , 1997 .

[23]  Roy A. Johnson,et al.  Seismic reflection evidence for seismogenic low-angle faulting in southeastern Arizona , 1992 .

[24]  G. Lavecchia,et al.  Present activity and seismogenic potential of a low-angle normal fault system (Città di Castello, Italy): Constraints from surface geology, seismic reflection data and seismicity , 2009 .

[25]  Robert W. King,et al.  Estimating regional deformation from a combination of space and terrestrial geodetic data , 1998 .

[26]  H. Schuh,et al.  Global Mapping Function (GMF): A new empirical mapping function based on numerical weather model data , 2006 .

[27]  Robert McCaffrey,et al.  Crustal Block Rotations and Plate Coupling , 2013 .

[28]  A. Deschamps,et al.  A microseismic study in the western part of the Gulf of Corinth (Greece): implications for large‐scale normal faulting mechanisms , 1996 .

[29]  C. Collettini,et al.  The Gubbio fault: can different methods give pictures of the same object? , 2003 .

[30]  J. Knott,et al.  Quaternary low-angle slip on detachment faults in Death Valley, California , 2003 .

[31]  M. Ripepe,et al.  Complex Normal Faulting in the Apennines Thrust-and-Fold Belt: The 1997 Seismic Sequence in Central Italy , 2004 .

[32]  R. Schultz,et al.  Geometry and slip distribution in normal fault systems: Implications for mechanics and fault‐related hazards , 1996 .

[33]  F. Brozzetti,et al.  Tectonic evolution of a low‐angle extensional fault system from restored cross‐sections in the Northern Apennines (Italy) , 2011 .

[34]  B. Wernicke Low-angle normal faults and seismicity: A review , 1995 .

[35]  B. Meade,et al.  Block Modeling with Connected Fault-Network Geometries and a Linear Elastic Coupling Estimator in Spherical Coordinates , 2009 .

[36]  R. Console,et al.  Modeling seismicity rate changes during the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (central Italy) through a rate- and state-dependent model , 2008 .

[37]  Geoffrey Blewitt,et al.  Effect of annual signals on geodetic velocity , 2002 .

[38]  Carl Tape,et al.  Multiscale estimation of GPS velocity fields , 2008 .

[39]  A. R. Pisani,et al.  Data analysis of Permanent GPS networks in Italy and surrounding region: application of a distributed processing approach , 2006 .

[40]  B. Wernicke Low-angle normal faults in the Basin and Range Province: nappe tectonics in an extending orogen , 1981, Nature.

[41]  P. Mai,et al.  Variability of dynamic source parameters inferred from kinematic models of past earthquakes , 2014 .

[42]  H. Kanamori,et al.  A moment magnitude scale , 1979 .

[43]  C. Scholz First-order splay faults: dip-slip examples , 2011 .

[44]  Walter H. F. Smith,et al.  New, improved version of generic mapping tools released , 1998 .

[45]  G. Lavecchia,et al.  Defining a model of 3D seismogenic sources for Seismic Hazard Assessment applications: The case of central Apennines (Italy) , 2004 .

[46]  O. Francis,et al.  Modelling the global ocean tides: modern insights from FES2004 , 2006 .

[47]  Maria Sachpazi,et al.  North Aegean crustal deformation: An active fault imaged to 10 km depth by reflection seismic data , 2000 .

[48]  S. Hreinsdóttir,et al.  Active aseismic creep on the Alto Tiberina low-angle normal fault, Italy , 2009 .

[49]  Enrico Serpelloni,et al.  Vertical GPS ground motion rates in the Euro‐Mediterranean region: New evidence of velocity gradients at different spatial scales along the Nubia‐Eurasia plate boundary , 2013 .

[50]  Richard G. Gordon,et al.  Statistical tests of additional plate boundaries from plate motion inversions , 1984 .

[51]  Thomas R. Walter,et al.  Triangular dislocation: an analytical, artefact-free solution , 2015 .

[52]  L. Jolivet,et al.  The North Cycladic Detachment System , 2010 .

[53]  C. Collettini,et al.  The Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory (northern Apennines, Italy) , 2014 .

[54]  P. Baldi,et al.  GPS measurement of active strains across the Apennines , 2006 .

[55]  Yehuda Bock,et al.  Spatiotemporal filtering using principal component analysis and Karhunen-Loeve expansion approaches for regional GPS network analysis , 2006 .

[56]  C. Collettini,et al.  Architecture and mechanics of an active low‐angle normal fault: Alto Tiberina Fault, northern Apennines, Italy , 2007 .

[57]  J. Remacle,et al.  Gmsh: A 3‐D finite element mesh generator with built‐in pre‐ and post‐processing facilities , 2009 .

[58]  Z. Altamimi,et al.  ITRF2008: an improved solution of the international terrestrial reference frame , 2011 .

[59]  Giusy Lavecchia,et al.  Architecture and seismotectonics of a regional low‐angle normal fault zone in central Italy , 2000 .