DYNAMIC COLLISION RISK ASSESMENT OF TANKER ON MADURA STRAIT SHIPPING LINE BY USING TRAFFIC BASED MODEL

Madura Straits as one of the busiests straits in Indonesia posses bigger risk of collision than the other. According to marine accident report from 2003 – 2008, there was 115 collision accident per year happen in Indonesia and collision covered 15 % from total accident so that why collision risk assement is important to do. In general, risk analysis is a function of a probability of undesirable events and consequences of danger. The probability of collision of vessels can be analyzed by modeling the distribution of the geometry of the ship movement in the region. To gather the distribution of the ship ovement, can take advantage of the data received by AIS receiver and stored in AIS databse. Probability analysis on this final project using three scenarios, namely: probability analysis of the ship collided with the ship in the anchorage conditions, probability analysis of ship to stranding and probability analysis of collision between two vessels in head-on condition. Consequence analysis is divided into two scenarios, consequences analysis of ship grounding and consequences analysis of ship collided with the tanker. From the analysis of the probability and consequences of ship collisions can be determined the criteria of a risk, whether low, medium or high. The results of collision risk assessment