Asset Price Dynamics When Traders Care About Reputation

What are the equilibrium features of a dynamic financial market where traders care about their reputation for ability? We modify a standard sequential trading model to study a financial market with career concerns. We show that this market cannot be informationally efficient: there is no equilibrium in which prices converge to the true value, even after an infinite sequence of trades. This finding, which stands in sharp contrast with the results for standard financial markets, is due to the fact that our traders face an endogenous incentive to behave in a conformist manner. We show that there exist equilibria where career-concerned agents trade in a conformist manner when prices have risen or fallen sharply. We also show that each asset carries an endogenous reputational benefit or cost, which may lead to systematic mispricing if asset supply is not infinitely elastic.

[1]  A. Kyle Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading , 1985 .

[2]  Stephen Morris,et al.  Depth of knowledge and the effect of higher order uncertainty , 1995 .

[3]  Andrea Prat,et al.  Financial equilibrium with career concerns , 2006 .

[4]  R. Sias,et al.  Reconcilable Differences: Momentum Trading By Institutions , 2005 .

[5]  In Ho Lee Market Crashes and Informational Avalanches , 1998 .

[6]  A. Banerjee,et al.  A Simple Model of Herd Behavior , 1992 .

[7]  Marco Ottaviani,et al.  Professional advice ∗ , 2003 .

[8]  S. Bikhchandani,et al.  You have printed the following article : A Theory of Fads , Fashion , Custom , and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades , 2007 .

[9]  Andrea Prat,et al.  The Price of Conformism , 2005 .

[10]  C. Avery,et al.  Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets , 1998 .

[11]  Nancy L. Stokey,et al.  Information, Trade, and Common Knowledge , 1982 .

[12]  Lones Smith,et al.  Pathological Outcomes of Observational Learning , 2000 .

[13]  Glenn Ellison,et al.  Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives , 1995, Journal of Political Economy.

[14]  Franklin Allen,et al.  Bubbles and Crises , 1997 .

[15]  D. Scharfstein,et al.  Herd Behavior and Investment , 1990 .

[16]  James Dow,et al.  Noise Trading, Delegated Portfolio Management, and Economic Welfare , 1994, Journal of Political Economy.

[17]  Dimitri Vayanos,et al.  Flight to Quality, Flight to Liquidity, and the Pricing of Risk , 2004 .

[18]  Franklin Allen,et al.  Do Financial Institutions Matter , 2001 .

[19]  H. Sabourian,et al.  Herding in Models of Sequential Trade with Monotonic Signals , 2004 .

[20]  Paul R. Milgrom,et al.  Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders , 1985 .

[21]  J. Tirole On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations , 1982 .

[22]  Patrick J. Dennis,et al.  Who Blinks in Volatile Markets, Individuals or Institutions? , 2000 .

[23]  Robert E. Filman,et al.  Professional advice ∗ , 2004 .

[24]  Ron Kaniel,et al.  Equilibrium Prices in the Presence of Delegated Portfolio Management , 2006 .

[25]  Jonathan D. Levin Bubbles and Crashes , 2006 .

[26]  Andrew Postlewaite,et al.  Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information , 1993 .

[27]  Andrea Prat,et al.  The Wrong Kind of Transparency , 2002 .

[28]  Glenn Ellison,et al.  Career Concerns of Mutual Fund Managers , 1998 .

[29]  J. Chevalier,et al.  Herding over the career , 1999 .

[30]  Franklin Allen,et al.  Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets , 2003 .

[31]  L. Summers,et al.  Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation , 1989 .

[32]  Brett Trueman Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior , 1994 .

[33]  K. Nielsen Institutional Investors and the Market for Corporate Equity , 2003 .

[34]  A. Shleifer,et al.  The Limits of Arbitrage , 1995 .

[35]  Wei Xiong,et al.  Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles , 2003, Journal of Political Economy.