A Large Scale Stochastic Multi-Class Schedule-Based Transit Model with Random Coefficients

Public transport assignment models are increasing in complexity in order to describe passengers’ route choices as detailed and correctly as possible. Important trends in the development are 1) schedule-based models, 2) inclusion of feeder modes, 3) use of stochastic components to describe differences in passengers’ preferences within and between trip purposes and classes, as well as to describe non-explained variation within a utility theory framework, and 4) consideration of capacity problems at coach level, system level and terminal level. In the East Denmark Model, such a large-scale transit assignment model was developed and estimated within a Stochastic User Equilibrium framework solved by the Method of Successive Averages. The model covered a metropolitan area including its hinterland (2,000 lines, 50,000 runs, 300,000 stops, and 1 million nodes and 10 million arcs in the calculation graph). The paper outlines the experiences from this project, and the subsequent research and development using the case as ‘modelling laboratory’. The main focus of the paper is to describe the estimation of the utility functions, and to discuss and suggest optimisation of the solution algorithm.