Asymptotic optimality and asymptotic equipartition properties of log-optimum investment

We ask how an investor (with knowledge of the past) should distribute his funds over various investment opportunities to maximize the growth rate of his compounded capital. Breiman (1961) answered this question when the stock returns for successive periods are independent, identically distributed random vectors. We prove that maximizing conditionally expected log return given currently available information at each stage is asymptotically optimum, with no restrictions on the distribution of the market process.If the market is stationary ergodic, then the maximum capital growth rate is shown to be a constant almost surely equal to the maximum expected log return given the infinite past. Indeed, log-optimum investment policies that at time n look at the n-past are sandwiched in asymptotic growth rate between policies that look at only the k-past and those that look at the infinite past, and the sandwich closes as k → ∞.

[1]  G. Vechkanov Investments , 2014, Canadian Medical Association journal.

[2]  Kai Lai Chung,et al.  A Course in Probability Theory , 1949 .

[3]  John L. Kelly,et al.  A new interpretation of information rate , 1956, IRE Trans. Inf. Theory.

[4]  L. Breiman The Individual Ergodic Theorem of Information Theory , 1957 .

[5]  L. Breiman INVESTMENT POLICIES FOR EXPANDING BUSINESSES OPTIMAL IN A LONG-RUN SENSE , 1960 .

[6]  L. Breiman Optimal Gambling Systems for Favorable Games , 1962 .

[7]  P. Samuelson General Proof that Diversification Pays , 1967, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[8]  P. Samuelson The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances and Higher Moments , 1970 .

[9]  P. Samuelson The "fallacy" of maximizing the geometric mean in long sequences of investing or gambling. , 1971, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[10]  E. Alfsen Compact convex sets and boundary integrals , 1971 .

[11]  J. Neveu,et al.  Martingales à temps discret , 1973 .

[12]  Paul A. Samuelson,et al.  The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances and Higher Moments1 , 1975 .

[13]  E. Thorp Portfolio Choice and the Kelly Criterion , 1975 .

[14]  Robert M. Bell,et al.  Competitive Optimality of Logarithmic Investment , 1980, Math. Oper. Res..

[15]  R. Gray,et al.  Asymptotically Mean Stationary Measures , 1980 .

[16]  M. Finkelstein,et al.  Optimal strategies for repeated games , 1981, Advances in Applied Probability.

[17]  Thomas M. Cover,et al.  An algorithm for maximizing expected log investment return , 1984, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory.

[18]  A. Barron THE STRONG ERGODIC THEOREM FOR DENSITIES: GENERALIZED SHANNON-MCMILLAN-BREIMAN THEOREM' , 1985 .

[19]  T. Cover,et al.  Game-theoretic optimal portfolios , 1988 .

[20]  T. Cover,et al.  A sandwich proof of the Shannon-McMillan-Breiman theorem , 1988 .