Seismic Reliability Analysis of Deteriorating Representative U.S. West Coast Bridge Transportation Networks

AbstractFor optimal functioning of societies and economies, understanding how networks of lifeline infrastructure, e.g., bridge networks, perform after a hazard is essential. Such hazard resilience can be quantified by considering the reliability of the network against disconnection or blocked network flow; however, a major challenge associated with such analysis is making sure that the component models are realistic while keeping the analysis accurate. For this reason, a methodology has been developed for realistic bridge network modeling using the following components: representative bridge classes identified by clustering a database, cutting-edge time-variant fragility models of bridges, and a multiscale network reliability analysis method, which accounts for the impact of bridge structural deterioration on network-level performance. Using the proposed methodology, the broader effects of various deterioration scenarios are investigated as well as the impacts of spatial correlation and the use of subjun...

[1]  Youwei Zhou,et al.  Effect of seismic retrofit of bridges on transportation networks , 2003 .

[2]  Paolo Gardoni,et al.  Closed-Form Fragility Estimates, Parameter Sensitivity, and Bayesian Updating for RC Columns , 2007 .

[3]  Kevin R. Mackie,et al.  Seismic Demands for Performance-Based Design of Bridges , 2003 .

[4]  Stephen V. Stehman,et al.  Selecting and interpreting measures of thematic classification accuracy , 1997 .

[5]  Asce,et al.  2013 report card for America’s infrastructure , 2017 .

[6]  Anil K. Chopra,et al.  Dynamics of Structures: Theory and Applications to Earthquake Engineering , 1995 .

[7]  G. Atkinson,et al.  Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for the Average Horizontal Component of PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped PSA at Spectral Periods between 0.01 s and 10.0 s , 2008 .

[8]  Armen Der Kiureghian,et al.  Probabilistic Capacity Models and Fragility Estimates for Reinforced Concrete Columns based on Experimental Observations , 2002 .

[9]  A. Genz.  Numerical Computation of Multivariate Normal Probabilities , 1992 .

[10]  Terje Haukaas,et al.  Seismic fragility estimates for reinforced concrete bridges subject to corrosion , 2009 .

[11]  H. Hong,et al.  Spatial correlation of peak ground motions and response spectra , 2008 .

[12]  Junho Song,et al.  Seismic reliability assessment of lifeline networks using clustering‐based multi‐scale approach , 2015 .

[13]  Seth D. Guikema,et al.  Reliability Estimation for Networks of Reinforced Concrete Bridges , 2009 .

[14]  Henrik O. Madsen,et al.  Structural Reliability Methods , 1996 .

[15]  Paolo Gardoni,et al.  Integrity Index and Integrity-based Optimal Design of structural systems , 2014 .

[16]  Hiroo Kanamori,et al.  Source complexity of the 1994 Northridge earthquake and its relation to aftershock mechanisms , 1996, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[17]  J. Gower.  A General Coefficient of Similarity and Some of Its Properties , 1971 .

[18]  Robert Tibshirani,et al.  The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, 2nd Edition , 2001, Springer Series in Statistics.

[19]  Benjamin Edwards,et al.  Ground motion prediction equations , 2014 .

[20]  Paolo Gardoni,et al.  Seismic fragility increment functions for deteriorating reinforced concrete bridges , 2011 .

[21]  Armen Der Kiureghian,et al.  PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC DEMAND MODELS AND FRAGILITY ESTIMATES FOR RC BRIDGES , 2003 .

[22]  Peter J. Rousseeuw,et al.  Finding Groups in Data: An Introduction to Cluster Analysis , 1990 .

[23]  Paolo Gardoni,et al.  Post-hazard flow capacity of bridge transportation network considering structural deterioration of bridges , 2011 .

[24]  Gregory L Fenves,et al.  BEHAVIOR AND FAILURE ANALYSIS OF A MULTIPLE-FRAME HIGHWAY BRIDGE IN THE 1994 NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE , 1998 .

[25]  Seung-Yong Ok,et al.  Multi-scale system reliability analysis of lifeline networks under earthquake hazards , 2009 .

[26]  Junho Song,et al.  Efficient risk assessment of lifeline networks under spatially correlated ground motions using selective recursive decomposition algorithm , 2012 .

[27]  Joshua Zhexue Huang,et al.  Extensions to the k-Means Algorithm for Clustering Large Data Sets with Categorical Values , 1998, Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery.

[28]  Cur.  STATISTICAL QUANTIFICATION OF THE VARIABLES IN THE LIMIT STATE FUNCTIONS , 2000 .

[29]  Junho Song,et al.  System reliability and sensitivity under statistical dependence by matrix-based system reliability method , 2009 .

[30]  Stefan Hurlebaus,et al.  Probabilistic Seismic Demand Models and Fragility Estimates for Reinforced Concrete Highway Bridges with One Single-Column Bent , 2010 .

[31]  Dan M. Frangopol,et al.  Time-Dependent Bridge Network Reliability: Novel Approach , 2005 .

[32]  Robert Tibshirani,et al.  Estimating the number of clusters in a data set via the gap statistic , 2000 .