Scale Characterization and Correction of Diurnal Cycle Errors in MAPLE

AbstractThe most widely used technique for nowcasting of quantitative precipitation in operational and research centers is the Lagrangian extrapolation of the latest radar observations. However, this technique has a limited forecast skill because of the assumption made on its formulation, such as the fact that the motion vectors do not change and, even more important for convective events, neglect any growth or decay in the precipitation field. In this work, the McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE) errors have been computed for 10 yr of radar composite data over the continental United States. The study of these errors shows systematic bias depending on the time of day. This effect is related to the solar cycle, whose heating energy results in an increase in the average rainfall in the afternoon. This external forcing interacts with the atmospheric system, creating local initiation and dissipation of convection depending on orography, land use, cloud coverage, e...

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