A Model For Optimal Investment Project Choice Using Fuzzy Probability

In this paper we present a model for classifying exclusive investments. The model uses Bellman and Zadeh’s decision-making criterion, determining the degree of convergence when the objective is to maximize the net present value of the project under the constraint of minimizing risk. The original aspect of this work consists in incorporating uncertainty into the model by considering variables such as project life, net income and capitalization rate as uncertain in order to determine net present value and risk. The concept of a fuzzy event is used to calculate the net present value and assess the risk of each investment project. This allows us to establish the degree to which a project is a good investment, understanding this as a fuzzy event and establishing the degree to which a project has a high net present value, understood as another fuzzy event.

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