Mapping topsoil organic carbon concentrations and stocks for Tanzania

Tanzania is one of the countries that has embarked on a national programme under the United Nations collaborative initiative on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). Tanzania is currently developing the capacity to enter into a carbon monitoring REDD+ regime. In this context spatially representative soil carbon datasets and accurate predictive maps are important for determining the soil organic carbon pool. The main objective of this study was to model and map the SOC stock for the 0–30-cm soil layer to provide baseline information for REDD+ purposes. Topsoil data of over 1400 locations spread throughout Tanzania from the National Forest Monitoring and Assessment (NAFORMA), were used, supplemented by two legacy datasets, to calibrate simple kriging with varying local means models. Maps of SOC concentrations (g kg−1) were generated for the 0–10-cm, 10–20-cm, 20–30-cm, 0–30-cm layers, and maps of bulk density and SOC stock (kg m−2) for the 0–30-cm layer. Two approaches for modelling SOC stocks were considered here: the calculate-then-model (CTM) approach and the model-then-calculate approach (MTC). The spatial predictions were validated by means of 10-fold cross-validation. Uncertainty associated to the estimated SOC stocks was quantified through conditional Gaussian simulation. Estimates of SOC stocks for the main land cover classes are provided. Environmental covariates related to soil and terrain proved to be the strongest predictors for all properties modelled. The mean predicted SOC stock for the 0–30-cm layer was 4.1 kg m−2 (CTM approach) translating to a total national stock of 3.6 Pg. The MTC approach gave similar results. The largest stocks are found in forest and grassland ecosystems, while woodlands and bushlands contain two thirds of the total SOC stock. The root mean squared error for the 0–30-cm layer was 1.8 kg m−2, and the R2-value was 0.51. The R2-value of SOC concentration for the 0–30-cm layer was 0.60 and that of bulk density 0.56. The R2-values of the predicted SOC concentrations for the 10-cm layers vary between 0.46 and 0.54. The 95% confidence interval of the predicted average SOC stock is 4.01–4.15 kg m−2, and that of the national total SOC stock 3.54–3.65 Pg. Uncertainty associated with SOC concentration had the largest contribution to SOC stock uncertainty. These findings have relevance for the ongoing REDD+ readiness process in Tanzania by supplementing the previous knowledge of significant carbon pools. The soil organic carbon pool makes up a relatively large proportion of carbon in Tanzania and is therefore an important carbon pool to consider alongside the ones related to the woody biomass. Going forward, the soil organic carbon data can potentially be used in the determination of reference emission levels and the future monitoring, reporting and verification of organic carbon pools.