A revised cross-impact method and its applications to the forecast of urban transportation technology

Abstract The method of the cross-impact analysis proposed by Duperrin and Godel in 1975 is here revised so that the most likely multidimensional event may be found by human judgement for the first order probability of occurrence of each event, and the conditional event comparably derived given the occurrence of another. Verbal description of the whole event, i.e., the scenario, is a useful method of assisting readers to understand the context of the scenario thus obtained. The methodology and its application to the forecasting of urban transportation in Japan is described.