Characterization of the uncertainty of the Robertson and Wride model for liquefaction potential evaluation

As the profession moves toward the performance-based earthquake engineering design, it becomes more important and pressing to examine the uncertainty of the limit state model used for liquefaction potential evaluation. In this paper, the uncertainty of the Robertson and Wride model, a simplified model for liquefaction resistance and potential evaluation based on cone penetration test, is investigated in detail for its model uncertainty in the framework of first-order reliability analysis. The uncertainties of the parameters used in the Robertson and Wride model are also examined. The model uncertainty is estimated by calibration with a fairly large set of case histories. The results show that the uncertainty of the Robertson and Wride model may be characterized with a mean-to-nominal of 0.94 and a coefficient of variation of 0.15 based on the case histories examined.