Biodiesel program in Brazil: learning curve over ten years (2005–2015)

The biodiesel blending mandate was launched at 2005 in Brazil, by a governmental program based mainly on sustainability concerns, especially toward social and environmental aspects. Since 2007, B7, i.e., 7% biodiesel in diesel, in volume terms, has been mandatory, and B10 is the next target. In this context, this paper aims to evaluate the biodiesel program along the ten years from 2005 to 2015 in Brazil, considering the evolution of the estimated costs and the auction prices intending to verify some tendency in a learning curve perspective. A decreasing tendency of the biodiesel production costs and prices was observed, with a reduction of the profit margin in recent years, suggesting a learning trend. The Progress Ratio (PR) of the whole period was 101.7%, but in the 2011–2015, it was estimated at 59.3%. Relevant technology changes in biodiesel production process were not verified, but the increased competitiveness in the market, the gains of scale of plant profiles, and mainly the decrease of soybean oil prices explain this evolution. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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