Abstract : This paper documents a multiyear effort to quantify the relationship between the national labor economy and retention of experienced personnel in the Air Force. A general labor-theory model is presented to explain total force retention. The model is then extended to describe retention in specific career fields. Probit equations are developed to predict individual retention decision across first, second, and career term retention decision points within each career field. The empirical results generally support hypotheses concerning direction and strength of impact of demographic, policy, bonus, and wage variables with considerable variation being noted across career fields. Future research issues are also proposed. Keywords include: economic retention model; enlisted retention model; longitudinal database; probit model; retention analysis.