Hypergame Analysis of the Lake Biwa Conflict

When there are misunderstandings among participants in a water resources conflict, hypergame analysis can be used to systematically model the conflict and predict the compromise resolutions. In order to demonstrate the efficacy of using hypergame analysis for studying water resources management problems, it is applied to the Lake Biwa conflict in Japan. This dispute constitutes a typical example of a water allocation conflict where downstream users would like more water from the upstream controllers of the major source of the water. Furthermore, each participant or player in the Lake Biwa dispute has misperceptions about the other players' preferences. Besides predicting the different resolutions which each of the players envisioned, hypergame analysis correctly forecasts the compromise resolution that occurred historically.

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