The Research Unit VolImpact: Revisiting the volcanic impact on atmosphere and climate – preparations for the next big volcanic eruption

This paper provides an overview of the scientific background and the research objectives of the Research Unit “VolImpact” (Revisiting the volcanic impact on atmosphere and climate – preparations for the next big volcanic eruption, FOR 2820). VolImpact was recently funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) and started in spring 2019. The main goal of the research unit is to improve our understanding of how the climate system responds to volcanic eruptions. Such an ambitious program is well beyond the capabilities of a single research group, as it requires expertise from complementary disciplines including aerosol microphysical modelling, cloud physics, climate modelling, global observations of trace gas species, clouds and stratospheric aerosols. The research goals will be achieved by building on important recent advances in modelling and measurement capabilities. Examples of the advances in the observations include the now daily near-global observations of multi-spectral aerosol extinction from the limb-scatter instruments OSIRIS, SCIAMACHY and OMPS-LP. In addition, the recently launched SAGE III/ISS and upcoming satellite missions EarthCARE and ALTIUS will provide high resolution observations of aerosols and clouds. Recent improvements in modeling capabilities within the framework of the ICON model family now enable simulations at spatial resolutions fine enough to investigate details of the evolution and dynamics of the volcanic eruptive plume using the large-eddy resolving version, up to volcanic impacts on larger-scale circulation systems in the general circulation model version. When combined with state-of-the-art aerosol and cloud microphysical models, these approaches offer the opportunity to link eruptions directly to their climate forcing. These advances will be exploited in VolImpact to study the effects of volcanic eruptions consistently over the full range of spatial and temporal scales involved, addressing the initial development of explosive eruption plumes (project VolPlume), the variation of stratospheric aerosol particle size and radiative forcing caused by volcanic eruptions (VolARC), the response of clouds (VolCloud), the effects of volcanic eruptions on atmospheric dynamics (VolDyn), as well as their climate impact (VolClim).

[1]  M. Christensen,et al.  Weak average liquid-cloud-water response to anthropogenic aerosols , 2019, Nature.

[2]  C. von Savigny,et al.  Challenges in retrieving stratospheric aerosol extinction and particle size from ground-based RMR-LIDAR observations , 2019 .

[3]  E. Rozanov,et al.  Improved tropospheric and stratospheric sulfur cycle in the aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv2 , 2019 .

[4]  H. Schmidt,et al.  The upper-atmosphere extension of the ICON general circulation model (version: ua-icon-1.0) , 2018, Geoscientific Model Development.

[5]  Andrew Gettelman,et al.  Volcanic Radiative Forcing From 1979 to 2015 , 2018, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[6]  E. Roeckner,et al.  ICON‐A, The Atmosphere Component of the ICON Earth System Model: II. Model Evaluation , 2018, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

[7]  G. Zängl,et al.  ICON‐A, the Atmosphere Component of the ICON Earth System Model: I. Model Description , 2018, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

[8]  H. Bovensmann,et al.  Aerosol particle size distribution in the stratosphere retrieved from SCIAMACHY limb measurements , 2017 .

[9]  Philippe Xu,et al.  The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb Profiler (LP) Version 1 aerosol extinction retrieval algorithm: theoretical basis , 2017 .

[10]  G. Mann,et al.  Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions , 2017, Nature.

[11]  Peter Korn,et al.  Formulation of an unstructured grid model for global ocean dynamics , 2017, J. Comput. Phys..

[12]  M. Fromm,et al.  A Conceptual Model for Development of Intense Pyrocumulonimbus in Western North America , 2017 .

[13]  S. Valcke,et al.  Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature , 2017 .

[14]  J. Mülmenstädt,et al.  Assessment of simulated aerosol effective radiative forcings in the terrestrial spectrum , 2017 .

[15]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Quantifying the impact of early 21 st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature , 2017 .

[16]  S. Min,et al.  Climate responses to volcanic eruptions assessed from observations and CMIP5 multi-models , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[17]  A. Robock,et al.  Winter warming and summer monsoon reduction after volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations , 2016 .

[18]  A. Prata Remote Sensing of Volcanic Eruptions , 2016 .

[19]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown , 2016 .

[20]  Didier Fussen,et al.  The ALTIUS mission , 2016 .

[21]  C. McLinden,et al.  Direct injection of water vapor into the stratosphere by volcanic eruptions , 2016 .

[22]  C. Timmreck,et al.  Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects , 2016, Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change.

[23]  C. Timmreck,et al.  The impact of wave‐mean flow interaction on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex after tropical volcanic eruptions , 2016 .

[24]  C. Timmreck,et al.  Stratospheric aerosol—Observations, processes, and impact on climate , 2016 .

[25]  Bin Wang,et al.  Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[26]  D. Siskind,et al.  Decadal variability in PMCs and implications for changing temperature and water vapor in the upper mesosphere , 2016 .

[27]  A. Schmidt,et al.  Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990–2014, using CESM1(WACCM) , 2016 .

[28]  T. Andrews,et al.  Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[29]  S. Carn,et al.  Multi-decadal satellite measurements of global volcanic degassing , 2016 .

[30]  Chini,et al.  The PMIP 4 contribution to CMIP 6 – Part 3 : the Last Millennium , 2016 .

[31]  D. Hartmann,et al.  Observations of a substantial cloud‐aerosol indirect effect during the 2014–2015 Bárðarbunga‐Veiðivötn fissure eruption in Iceland , 2015 .

[32]  Larry W. Thomason,et al.  Improved stratospheric aerosol extinction profiles from SCIAMACHY: validation and sample results , 2015 .

[33]  A. Robock Important research questions on volcanic eruptions and climate , 2015 .

[34]  C. Timmreck,et al.  Evolving particle size is the key to improved volcanic forcings , 2015 .

[35]  V. Masson‐Delmotte,et al.  Estimates of volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1,500 years , 2015 .

[36]  U. Lohmann,et al.  Did the 2011 Nabro eruption affect the optical properties of ice clouds? , 2015 .

[37]  B. Langmann,et al.  Ash iron mobilization through physicochemical processing in volcanic eruption plumes: a numerical modeling approach , 2015 .

[38]  J. Vernier,et al.  Significant radiative impact of volcanic aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere , 2015, Nature Communications.

[39]  M. Hermann,et al.  Influence of volcanic eruptions on midlatitude upper tropospheric aerosol and consequences for cirrus clouds , 2015 .

[40]  B. Vogel,et al.  ICON-ART 1.0 - a new online-coupled model system from the global to regional scale , 2015 .

[41]  A. Schmidt,et al.  Icelandic volcanic emissions and climate , 2015 .

[42]  T. Yuan,et al.  Long-term midlatitude mesopause region temperature trend deduced from quarter century (1990-2014) Na lidar observations , 2015 .

[43]  C. Timmreck,et al.  The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure , 2014 .

[44]  Makiko Sato,et al.  Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change , 2014 .

[45]  G. Hegerl,et al.  The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models , 2014 .

[46]  T. Shepherd Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections , 2014 .

[47]  B. Vogel,et al.  Time-lagged ensemble simulations of the dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull plume over Europe with COSMO-ART , 2014 .

[48]  P. Bhartia,et al.  OMPS Limb Profiler instrument performance assessment , 2014 .

[49]  Carl A. Mears,et al.  Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature , 2014 .

[50]  R. Schiemann,et al.  The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[51]  Robert Damadeo,et al.  SAGE version 7.0 algorithm: application to SAGE II , 2013 .

[52]  C. Clerbaux,et al.  The 2011 Nabro eruption, a SO 2 plume height analysis using IASI measurements , 2013 .

[53]  J. Sheng,et al.  Modeling the stratospheric warming following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption: uncertainties in aerosol extinctions , 2013 .

[54]  V. Brovkin,et al.  Representation of natural and anthropogenic land cover change in MPI‐ESM , 2013 .

[55]  G. Mann,et al.  Natural aerosol direct and indirect radiative effects , 2013 .

[56]  Alyn Lambert,et al.  Convectively injected water vapor in the North American summer lowermost stratosphere , 2013 .

[57]  P. Bernath,et al.  The relation between atmospheric humidity and temperature trends for stratospheric water , 2013 .

[58]  C. Timmreck Modeling the climatic effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions , 2012 .

[59]  G. Mann,et al.  Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate , 2012 .

[60]  M. Herzog,et al.  Ascent dynamics of large phreatomagmatic eruption clouds: The role of microphysics , 2012 .

[61]  Nickolay A. Krotkov,et al.  Likely seeding of cirrus clouds by stratospheric Kasatochi volcanic aerosol particles near a mid-latitude tropopause fold , 2012 .

[62]  C. Timmreck,et al.  Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[63]  T. Leisner,et al.  Ice nucleation properties of fine ash particles from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in April 2010 , 2011 .

[64]  C. Timmreck,et al.  The influence of eruption season on the global aerosol evolution and radiative impact of tropical volcanic eruptions , 2011 .

[65]  Albert Ansmann,et al.  Ice formation in ash‐influenced clouds after the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April 2010 , 2011 .

[66]  D. Degenstein,et al.  Odin-OSIRIS stratospheric aerosol data product and SAGE III intercomparison , 2011 .

[67]  R. Neely,et al.  The Persistently Variable “Background” Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change , 2011, Science.

[68]  S. Petelina,et al.  Transport and evolution of the 2009 Australian Black Saturday bushfire smoke in the lower stratosphere observed by OSIRIS on Odin , 2011 .

[69]  R. Grainger,et al.  Optimal estimation retrieval of aerosol microphysical properties from SAGE~II satellite observations in the volcanically unperturbed lower stratosphere , 2010 .

[70]  S. Solomon,et al.  Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming , 2010, Science.

[71]  John M. Wallace,et al.  Identifying Signatures of Natural Climate Variability in Time Series of Global-Mean Surface Temperature: Methodology and Insights , 2009 .

[72]  R. Stouffer,et al.  Volcanic signals in oceans , 2009 .

[73]  E. J. Llewellyn,et al.  Retrieval of stratospheric aerosol size information from OSIRIS limb scattered sunlight spectra , 2008 .

[74]  T. Deshler A review of global stratospheric aerosol: Measurements, importance, life cycle, and local stratospheric aerosol , 2008 .

[75]  J. Qian,et al.  Why Precipitation Is Mostly Concentrated over Islands in the Maritime Continent , 2008 .

[76]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering , 2007 .

[77]  L. Thomason,et al.  SAGE II measurements of stratospheric aerosol properties at non-volcanic levels , 2007 .

[78]  A. Robock,et al.  High‐latitude eruptions cast shadow over the African monsoon and the flow of the Nile , 2006 .

[79]  Lawrence E. Flynn,et al.  The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite , 2006 .

[80]  Paolo Papale,et al.  Numerical simulation of explosive volcanic eruptions from the conduit flow to global atmospheric scales , 2005 .

[81]  J. Arblaster,et al.  Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content , 2005, Nature.

[82]  Jay R. Herman,et al.  Correction to “Pyro‐cumulonimbus injection of smoke to the stratosphere: Observations and impact of a super blowup in northwestern Canada on 3–4 August 1998” , 2005 .

[83]  W. Rose,et al.  Re‐evaluation of SO2 release of the 15 June 1991 Pinatubo eruption using ultraviolet and infrared satellite sensors , 2004 .

[84]  D. Fussen,et al.  A global climatology of stratospheric aerosol size distribution parameters derived from SAGE II data over the period 1984–2000: 1. Methodology and climatological observations , 2004 .

[85]  Manoj Joshi,et al.  A GCM Study of Volcanic Eruptions as a Cause of Increased Stratospheric Water Vapor , 2003 .

[86]  E. J. Llewellyn,et al.  Stratospheric ozone profiles retrieved from limb scattered sunlight radiance spectra measured by the OSIRIS instrument on the Odin satellite , 2003 .

[87]  D. Fussen,et al.  A new regularized inversion method for the retrieval of stratospheric aerosol size distributions applied to 16 years of SAGE II data (1984–2000): method, results and validation , 2003 .

[88]  A. Robock Volcanic eruptions and climate , 2000 .

[89]  M. Buchwitz,et al.  SCIAMACHY: Mission Objectives and Measurement Modes , 1999 .

[90]  K. Sassen Evidence for Liquid-Phase Cirrus Cloud Formation from Volcanic Aerosols: Climatic Implications , 1992, Science.