Roadmap for Modeling Risks of Terrorism to the Homeland

The terrorist acts of September 11, 2001, were a wake-up call for changing our past practices in ensuring homeland security. The positive results of these changes, however, are accompanied by myriad visible and invisible risks. Accepting change implies assessing and managing these risks in a comprehensive and systemic fashion, avoiding an ad hoc approach. This paper offers a holistic risk assessment and management framework for modeling the risks of terrorism to the homeland. Two major interconnected systems are addressed: the homeland system and the terrorist networks system. In modeling the two systems, the centrality of state variables is highlighted. It is worth noting that the community of risk analysts has been developing and applying systems-based methodologies and tools for many years. The roadmap presented in this paper builds on the findings of many prior analyses.

[1]  Y. Haimes,et al.  Leontief-Based Model of Risk in Complex Interconnected Infrastructures , 2001 .

[2]  Ashton B. Carter,et al.  The Architecture of Government in the Face of Terrorism , 2001, International Security.

[3]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Risk-Based Methodology for Support of Operations Other Than War , 2002 .

[4]  Thomas E. Copeland.  The information revolution and national security , 2000 .

[5]  S. Kaplan,et al.  On The Quantitative Definition of Risk , 1981 .

[6]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Risk modeling, assessment, and management , 1998 .

[7]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Total Risk Management , 1991 .

[8]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  A holistic roadmap for survivable infrastructure systems , 2002, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part A.

[9]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical Holographic Modeling , 1981, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[10]  S. Walt,et al.  Rigor or Rigor Mortis? Rational Choice and Security Studies , 1999, International Security.

[11]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Assessing and managing risks to information assurance: A methodological approach , 2002 .

[12]  Thomas H. Davenport,et al.  Book review:Working knowledge: How organizations manage what they know. Thomas H. Davenport and Laurence Prusak. Harvard Business School Press, 1998. $29.95US. ISBN 0‐87584‐655‐6 , 1998 .

[13]  B J Garrick,et al.  Fitting Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into the Theory of Scenario Structuring and a Resulting Refinement to the Quantitative Definition of Risk , 2001, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[14]  John Arquilla,et al.  Networks And Netwars , 2000 .

[15]  Y. Haimes.  Risk Analysis, Systems Analysis, and Covey's Seven Habits. Perspectives , 2001, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[16]  Wassily Leontief.  Input-Output Economics , 1966 .

[17]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Quantitative Risk Analysis of GPS as a Critical Infrastructure for Civilian Transportation Applications , 2001 .