Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis Applied to the Management of Aquatic Nuisance Species

Abstract : There are a number of potential strategies and approaches for managing aquatic nuisance species (ANS). This technical note will consider how decision-makers and stakeholders can resolve conflicting goals and scientific uncertainties that otherwise impair evaluation and selection of a method to address a specific problem. Value trade-offs exist among multiple objectives and scientific uncertainties about (1) how an ecosystem responds to control of ANS, and (2) the role of ANS in that response. These trade-offs and uncertainties have important implications for distinguishing among alternative management actions; for example, the use of chemical versus biological control agents. A structured approach to decision-making that explicitly considers and addresses the risks and uncertainties within an overall decision analysis framework will provide a systematic process for evaluating how the predicted performance of a management action, and the uncertainties associated with that prediction, affect objectives that stakeholders care about most. Such a framework will aid decision-makers in providing an organizing structure for making decisions that will produce confidence in the resulting decisions.

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