Judgment: a cognitive processing perspective.

Historically, judgment research has been mainly concerned with identifying regularities in sensation (e.g., discriminability laws) and assessing judgment accuracy. More recently, the focus has shifted toward specifying the information processing mechanisms underlying judgment and modeling them, for example, as cognitive strategies. We contrast this strategy approach with previous prominent research programs on judgment and provide an overview of various process-level accounts that have been proposed in terms of computational models (e.g., compensatory and noncompensatory cue-abstraction strategies, evidence accumulation, exemplar processing, and parallel constraint satisfaction). Importantly, empirical investigations show that the cognitive processes underlying judgment differ considerably as a function of the individual's cognitive capacity and characteristics of the task environment (e.g., information cost, cognitive capacity, cue inter-correlations, relationship between cues and the to-be-judged criterion). We argue that these systematic contingencies in strategy use can be understood as adaptive responses to costs in learning, information acquisition, and strategy execution. WIREs Cogn Sci 2013, 4:665-681. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1259 CONFLICT OF INTEREST: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

[1]  P. Juslin,et al.  Information integration in multiple cue judgment: A division of labor hypothesis , 2008, Cognition.

[2]  Arndt Bröder,et al.  Challenging some common beliefs: Empirical work within the adaptive toolbox metaphor , 2008, Judgment and Decision Making.

[3]  Thorsten Pachur,et al.  Expert Intuitions: How to Model the Decision Strategies of Airport Customs Officers? ☆ , 2022 .

[4]  John W. Payne,et al.  Effort and Accuracy in Choice , 1985 .

[5]  K. R. Hammond Probabilistic functioning and the clinical method. , 1955, Psychological review.

[6]  Thomas R. Coyle,et al.  Giftedness and variability in strategic processing on a multitrial memory task: Evidence for stability in gifted cognition , 1998 .

[7]  G Gigerenzer,et al.  Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality. , 1996, Psychological review.

[8]  J. Rieskamp,et al.  SSL: a theory of how people learn to select strategies. , 2006, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[9]  N. Brown Encoding, representing, and estimating event frequencies: a multiple strategy perspective , 2002 .

[10]  Thorsten Pachur,et al.  On the psychology of the recognition heuristic: retrieval primacy as a key determinant of its use. , 2006, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[11]  J. Rieskamp The importance of learning when making inferences , 2008, Judgment and Decision Making.

[12]  S. S. Stevens On the psychophysical law. , 1957, Psychological review.

[13]  Mandeep K. Dhami,et al.  Take-the-best in expert – novice decision strategies for residential burglary , 2022 .

[14]  Yael Grushka-Cockayne,et al.  The Similarity Heuristic , 2007 .

[15]  Thorsten Pachur,et al.  Automatic activation of attribute knowledge in heuristic inference from memory , 2013, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[16]  R. Hertwig,et al.  Judgments of risk frequencies: tests of possible cognitive mechanisms. , 2005, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[17]  P. Meehl,et al.  Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical–statistical controversy. , 1996 .

[18]  R. Dawes,et al.  Heuristics and Biases: Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment , 2002 .

[19]  L. Schooler,et al.  The aging decision maker: cognitive aging and the adaptive selection of decision strategies. , 2007, Psychology and aging.

[20]  A. Glöckner,et al.  Coherence Shifts in Probabilistic Inference Tasks , 2009 .

[21]  P. Slovic,et al.  Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions. , 1971 .

[22]  Jörg Rieskamp,et al.  The mapping model: a cognitive theory of quantitative estimation. , 2008, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[23]  Nick Chater,et al.  The Rational Analysis Of Mind And Behavior , 2000, Synthese.

[24]  Craig R. M. McKenzie,et al.  Rational models as theories – not standards – of behavior , 2003, Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

[25]  B. Newell Re-visions of rationality? , 2005, Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

[26]  Walter Schneider,et al.  Controlled and Automatic Human Information Processing: 1. Detection, Search, and Attention. , 1977 .

[27]  Thorsten Pachur,et al.  How do people judge risks: availability heuristic, affect heuristic, or both? , 2012, Journal of experimental psychology. Applied.

[28]  A. Tversky,et al.  On the psychology of prediction , 1973 .

[29]  D Kahneman,et al.  On the reality of cognitive illusions. , 1996, Psychological review.

[30]  Julian N. Marewski,et al.  Cognitive niches: an ecological model of strategy selection. , 2011, Psychological review.

[31]  Thomas S. Wallsten,et al.  The Theoretical Status of Judgmental Heuristics1) , 1983 .

[32]  Larry D. Rosen,et al.  An eye fixation analysis of choice and judgment with multiattribute stimuli , 1976, Memory & cognition.

[33]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  The "conjunction fallacy" revisited : How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors , 1999 .

[34]  Ulrich Hoffrage,et al.  Inferences under time pressure: how opportunity costs affect strategy selection. , 2008, Acta psychologica.

[35]  J Jonides,et al.  PET evidence for multiple strategies of categorization , 2001, Cognitive, affective & behavioral neuroscience.

[36]  Thorsten Pachur,et al.  Memory-based Decision-making with Heuristics: Evidence for a Controlled Activation of Memory Representations , 2011, Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience.

[37]  John W. Payne,et al.  The adaptive decision maker: Name index , 1993 .

[38]  John W. Payne,et al.  Contingent decision behavior. , 1982 .

[39]  R. Nosofsky,et al.  A response-time approach to comparing generalized rational and take-the-best models of decision making. , 2007, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[40]  Allen Parducci,et al.  Range-frequency compromise in judgment. , 1963 .

[41]  L. Beach,et al.  Man as an Intuitive Statistician , 2022 .

[42]  C A Becker,et al.  Semantic context effects in visual word recognition, sentence processing, and reading: evidence for semantic strategies. , 1982, Journal of experimental psychology. Human perception and performance.

[43]  Benjamin E. Hilbig,et al.  Deliberation versus automaticity in decision making: Which presentation format features facilitate automatic decision making? , 2013, Judgment and Decision Making.

[44]  Jörg Rieskamp,et al.  Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach. , 2013, Psychological review.

[45]  Arndt Bröder,et al.  Most people do not ignore salient invalid cues in memory-based decisions , 2012, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[46]  J R Anderson,et al.  Retrieval of information from long-term memory. , 1983, Science.

[47]  U. Hoffrage,et al.  Fast, frugal, and fit: Simple heuristics for paired comparison , 2002 .

[48]  J. Gold,et al.  The neural basis of decision making. , 2007, Annual review of neuroscience.

[49]  P. Hoffman The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment. , 1960, Psychological bulletin.

[50]  L. Tucker A SUGGESTED ALTERNATIVE FORMULATION IN THE DEVELOPMENTS BY HURSCH, HAMMOND, AND HURSCH, AND BY HAMMOND, HURSCH, AND TODD. , 1964, Psychological review.

[51]  Ola Svenson,et al.  Time pressure and stress in human judgment and decision making , 1993 .

[52]  R. Siegler,et al.  Four aspects of strategic change: Contributions to children's learning of multiplication. , 1995 .

[53]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Determinants of Linear Judgment: A Meta-Analysis of Lens Model Studies , 2007, Psychological bulletin.

[54]  Timothy J. Pleskac,et al.  Two-stage dynamic signal detection: a theory of choice, decision time, and confidence. , 2010, Psychological review.

[55]  Mark K. Johansen,et al.  Exemplar-based accounts of "multiple-system" phenomena in perceptual categorization. , 2000, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[56]  Thorsten Pachur,et al.  Recognition-based inference: When is less more in the real world? , 2010, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[57]  Ralph Hertwig,et al.  The robust beauty of ordinary information. , 2010, Psychological review.

[58]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Heuristic and linear models of judgment: matching rules and environments. , 2007, Psychological review.

[59]  William M. Goldstein,et al.  Social Judgment Theory: Applying and Extending Brunswik's Probabilistic Functionalism , 2008 .

[60]  Lael J. Schooler,et al.  The Recognition Heuristic: A Review of Theory and Tests , 2011, Front. Psychology.

[61]  Philip L. Smith,et al.  Psychology and neurobiology of simple decisions , 2004, Trends in Neurosciences.

[62]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Homo Heuristicus: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences , 2009, Top. Cogn. Sci..

[63]  Arndt Bröder,et al.  Bayesian strategy assessment in multi‐attribute decision making , 2003 .

[64]  T. R. Stewart,et al.  10 – SOCIAL JUDGMENT THEORY , 1975 .

[65]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic. , 2002, Psychological review.

[66]  Thorsten Pachur,et al.  Selection of Decision Strategies After Conscious and Unconscious Thought , 2013 .

[67]  Lola L. Lopes The Rhetoric of Irrationality , 1991 .

[68]  L. L. Thurstone,et al.  An internal consistency check for scale values determined by the method of successive intervals , 1952 .

[69]  S. S. Stevens,et al.  Ratio scales and category scales for a dozen perceptual continua. , 1957, Journal of experimental psychology.

[70]  Philip L. Smith,et al.  A comparison of sequential sampling models for two-choice reaction time. , 2004, Psychological review.

[71]  Julian N. Marewski On the theoretical precision and strategy selection problem of a single-strategy approach: A comment on Glockner, Betsch, and Schindler (2010). , 2010 .

[72]  M. Lee,et al.  Evidence accumulation in decision making: Unifying the “take the best” and the “rational” models , 2004, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[73]  Andreas Glöckner,et al.  Modeling Option and Strategy Choices with Connectionist Networks: Towards an Integrative Model of Automatic and Deliberate Decision Making , 2008, Judgment and Decision Making.

[74]  A. Tversky,et al.  Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment , 1983 .

[75]  A. Bröder,et al.  When the Rule is Ruled Out: Exemplars and Rules in Decisions from Memory , 2013 .

[76]  A. Glöckner,et al.  Multiple-reason decision making based on automatic processing. , 2008, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[77]  David V. Budescu,et al.  Why recognition is rational: Optimality results on single-variable decision rules , 2010, Judgment and Decision Making.

[78]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability , 1973 .

[79]  L. Beach,et al.  A Contingency Model for the Selection of Decision Strategies , 1978 .

[80]  H. Simon,et al.  Invariants of human behavior. , 1990, Annual review of psychology.

[81]  Jörg Rieskamp,et al.  Inferences from memory: strategy- and exemplar-based judgment models compared. , 2009, Acta psychologica.

[82]  A. Bröder Decision making with the "adaptive toolbox": influence of environmental structure, intelligence, and working memory load. , 2003, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[83]  H. J. Einhorn,et al.  Linear regression and process-tracing models of judgment. , 1979 .

[84]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Aspects of Endowment: A Query Theory of Value Construction , 2007, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[85]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Mindful judgment and decision making. , 2009, Annual review of psychology.

[86]  Thorsten Pachur,et al.  Type of learning task impacts performance and strategy selection in decision making , 2012, Cognitive Psychology.

[87]  Henrik Olsson,et al.  Exemplar-based inference in multi-attribute decision making: Contingent, not automatic, strategy shifts? , 2008, Judgment and Decision Making.

[88]  J. Ford,et al.  Process tracing methods: Contributions, problems, and neglected research questions , 1989 .

[89]  A. Bröder,et al.  Take the best versus simultaneous feature matching: probabilistic inferences from memory and effects of representation format. , 2003, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[90]  Henrik Olsson,et al.  Adaptive changes between cue abstraction and exemplar memory in a multiple-cue judgment task with continuous cues , 2007, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[91]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making. , 1988 .

[92]  Jörg Rieskamp,et al.  The influence of information redundancy on probabilistic inferences , 2007, Memory & cognition.

[93]  A. Bröder Assessing the empirical validity of the "take-the-best" heuristic as a model of human probabilistic inference. , 2000, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[94]  M. Birnbaum Base Rates in Bayesian Inference: Signal Detection Analysis of the Cab Problem , 1983 .

[95]  Auble,et al.  Resource-Allocation Strategies: A Verbal Protocol Analysis. , 1998, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[96]  H. Simon,et al.  A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice , 1955 .

[97]  Michael Schulte-Mecklenbeck,et al.  A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research. A Critical Review and User's Guide , 2011 .

[98]  Henrik Olsson,et al.  The cognitive substrate of subjective probability. , 2005, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[99]  G. Gigerenzer On Narrow Norms and Vague Heuristics: A Reply to Kahneman and Tversky (1996) , 1996 .

[100]  L. Thurstone A law of comparative judgment. , 1994 .

[101]  P. Juslin,et al.  Exemplar effects in categorization and multiple-cue judgment. , 2003, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[102]  Arndt Bröder,et al.  Stimulus format and working memory in fast and frugal strategy selection , 2006 .

[103]  B. Newell,et al.  The Right Tool for the Job? Comparing an Evidence Accumulation and a Naive Strategy Selection Model of Decision Making , 2011 .