Grey-Markov Model for the Prediction of the Electricity Production and Consumption

The electricity planning of a country requires accurate models for the prediction of the electricity production and consumption. It is an important process which guarantees a better future of the energy sector. In the field of predictive modeling and probabilistic forecasting, the Grey-Markov model is considered desirable since it gathers the GM(1,1) prediction model with the ability of the Markov chain to correct the errors related to the prediction. As an application, the historical data of the electricity production and consumption in Morocco from 1990 to 2017 was selected, and the predicted results from 2018 to 2030 show the efficiency of the Grey-Markov model comparing to the GM(1,1) model.

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