Forecasting the pattern of urban growth with PUP: a web-based model interfaced with GIS and 3D animation

This paper describes a model (PUP - Projections for Urban Planning) implemented to forecast the location of housing development and population growth on the fringes of large cities. The model couples the land use and housing unit methods of population forecasting in a GIS framework that delivers a seamless interface between data assembly, modelling, visualisation and analysis. Work has focussed on incorporating spatial relationships, calibration, and visualisation. Three factors are accounted for: land availability; accessibility to facilities and other stimuli; and adjacency to existing development. These are weighted and combined to determine the probable location of future development. Forecasts are available as: GIS readable files; tables; or 3D animations with interactive querying. The model has been implemented in Adelaide but its generic structure yields a flexible, interactive forecasting system to be used as decision support for urban planning in other settings.

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