When good = better than average

People report themselves to be above average on simple tasks and below average on difficult tasks. This paper proposes an explanation for this effect that is simpler than prior explanations. The new explanation is that people conflate relative with absolute evaluation, especially on subjective measures. The paper then presents a series of four studies that test this conflation explanation. These tests distinguish conflation from other explanations, such as differential weighting and selecting the wrong referent. The results suggest that conflation occurs at the response stage during which people attempt to disambiguate subjective response scales in order to choose an answer. This is because conflation has little effect on objective measures, which would be equally affected if the conflation occurred at encoding.

[1]  Don A. Moore,et al.  Overconfidence and Underconfidence: When and Why People Underestimate (and Overestimate) the Competition , 2007 .

[2]  Deborah A Small,et al.  Error and bias in comparative judgment: on being both better and worse than we think we are. , 2007, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[3]  Deborah A. Small,et al.  Error and Bias in Comparative Judgment: On Being Both Better and Worse than We Think We are , 2007 .

[4]  Don A. Moore,et al.  Not so Above Average After All: When People Believe They are Worse than Average and its Implications for Theories of Bias in Social Comparison , 2007 .

[5]  John R. Chambers,et al.  The Rational Side of Egocentrism in Social Comparisons , 2006 .

[6]  Gordon D. A. Brown,et al.  Absolute identification by relative judgment. , 2005, Psychological review.

[7]  J. Klayman,et al.  Judgments of Performance: The Relative, the Absolute, and the In-Between , 2005 .

[8]  J. Suls,et al.  Flawed Self-Assessment , 2004, Psychological science in the public interest : a journal of the American Psychological Society.

[9]  John R. Chambers,et al.  Biases in social comparative judgments: the role of nonmotivated factors in above-average and comparative-optimism effects. , 2004, Psychological bulletin.

[10]  Jeremy Burrus,et al.  Egocentrism and focalism in unrealistic optimism (and pessimism) , 2004 .

[11]  Tai Gyu Kim,et al.  Myopic social prediction and the solo comparison effect. , 2003, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[12]  M. Biernat,et al.  Toward a broader view of social stereotyping. , 2003, The American psychologist.

[13]  Jerry Suls,et al.  Egocentrism, Event Frequency, and Comparative Optimism: When what Happens Frequently is “More Likely to Happen to Me” , 2003, Personality & social psychology bulletin.

[14]  Justin Kruger,et al.  The influence of egocentrism and focalism on people's optimism in competitions: when what affects us equally affects me more. , 2003, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[15]  Y. Klar,et al.  When standards are wide of the mark: nonselective superiority and inferiority biases in comparative judgments of objects and concepts. , 2002, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[16]  Ulrike Malmendier,et al.  CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment , 2002 .

[17]  Y. Klar,et al.  Way beyond compare: Nonselective superiority and inferiority biases in judging randomly assigned group members relative to their peers , 2002 .

[18]  W. Klein Comparative risk estimates relative to the average peer predict behavioral intentions and concern about absolute risk , 2002 .

[19]  Amnon Rapoport,et al.  Effects of Financial Incentives on the Breakdown of Mutual Trust , 2002, Psychological science.

[20]  M. Biernat,et al.  She Swings, She Hits, She’s Great, She’s Benched: Implications of Gender-Based Shifting Standards for Judgment and Behavior , 2002 .

[21]  W. Klein,et al.  Self-other biases in judgments of ambiguous performance and corresponding ability , 2002 .

[22]  W. Klein,et al.  Post Hoc Construction of Self-Performance and Other Performance in Self-Serving Social Comparison , 2001 .

[23]  Marie Helweg-Larsen,et al.  Do Moderators of the Optimistic Bias Affect Personal or Target Risk Estimates? A Review of the Literature , 2001 .

[24]  N. Schwarz Feelings as information: Implications for affective influences on information processing. , 2001 .

[25]  F. Strack,et al.  The "relative self": informational and judgmental consequences of comparative self-evaluation. , 2000, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[26]  J. Kruger Lake Wobegon be gone! The "below-average effect" and the egocentric nature of comparative ability judgments. , 1999, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[27]  Y. Klar,et al.  Are Most People Happier than their Peers, or Are They Just Happy? , 1999 .

[28]  Peter Unger,et al.  Living high and letting die: Our illusion of innocence , 1998 .

[29]  N. Schwarz Self-reports: How the questions shape the answers. , 1999 .

[30]  Norbert Schwarz,et al.  FORMAL FEATURES OF RATING SCALES AND THE INTERPRETATION OF QUESTION MEANING , 1998 .

[31]  Terrance Odean,et al.  Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders are Above Average , 1998 .

[32]  Daniel Friedman,et al.  Monty Hall's Three Doors: Construction and Deconstruction of a Choice Anomaly , 1998 .

[33]  Y. Klar,et al.  No one in my group can be below the group's average: a robust positivity bias in favor of anonymous peers. , 1997, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[34]  M. Biernat,et al.  Simultaneous assimilation and contrast effects in judgments of self and others. , 1997, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[35]  W. Klein,et al.  Objective standards are not enough: affective, self-evaluative, and behavioral responses to social comparison information. , 1997, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[36]  J. Baron,et al.  Confusion of Relative and Absolute Risk in Valuation , 1997 .

[37]  D. Sarel,et al.  Nonunique invulnerability : Singular versus distributional probabilities and unrealistic optimism in comparative risk judgments , 1996 .

[38]  T. Ostrom,et al.  How Meaning Is Given to Rating Scales: The Effects of Response Language on Category Activation , 1996 .

[39]  Wilma Otten,et al.  Context effects in the measurement of optimism in probability judgment , 1996 .

[40]  M. L. Klotz,et al.  Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. , 1995 .

[41]  Hans-Jürgen Hippler,et al.  SUBSEQUENT QUESTIONS MAY INFLUENCE ANSWERS TO PRECEDING QUESTIONS IN MAIL SURVEYS , 1995 .

[42]  I. Erev,et al.  Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: The Role of Error in Judgment Processes. , 1994 .

[43]  L. Thurstone A law of comparative judgment. , 1994 .

[44]  S. Epstein,et al.  Conflict between intuitive and rational processing: when people behave against their better judgment. , 1994, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[45]  M. Biernat,et al.  Shifting standards and stereotype-based judgments. , 1994, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[46]  V. Smith Monetary Rewards and Decision Cost in Experimental Economics: An Extension , 1993 .

[47]  Bram P. Buunk,et al.  SOCIAL-COMPARISON OF HEALTH RISKS - LOCUS OF CONTROL, THE PERSON-POSITIVITY BIAS, AND UNREALISTIC OPTIMISM , 1993 .

[48]  Leslie F. Clark,et al.  RATING SCALES NUMERIC VALUES MAY CHANGE THE MEANING OF SCALE LABELS , 1991 .

[49]  F. Strack,et al.  Ease of retrieval as information: Another look at the availability heuristic. , 1991 .

[50]  Dale T. Miller,et al.  Counterfactual thinking and social perception : thinking about what might have been , 1990 .

[51]  D. Dunning,et al.  Ambiguity and self-evaluation: the role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability , 1989 .

[52]  Comparing Expressed and Revealed Preferences for Risk Reduction: Different Hazards and Question Frames , 1988 .

[53]  Ido Erev,et al.  Understanding and using linguistic uncertainties , 1988 .

[54]  David V. Budescu,et al.  Decisions based on numerically and verbally expressed uncertainties. , 1988 .

[55]  David V. Budescu,et al.  Subjective estimation of precise and vague uncertainties. , 1987 .

[56]  L. Perloff,et al.  Self–other judgments and perceived vulnerability to victimization. , 1986 .

[57]  Norbert Schwarz,et al.  Response Scales: Effects of Category Range on Reported Behavior and Comparative Judgments , 1985 .

[58]  Neil D. Weinstein,et al.  Egocentrism as a Source of Unrealistic Optimism , 1982 .

[59]  O. Svenson ARE WE ALL LESS RISKY AND MORE SKILLFUL THAN OUR FELLOW DRIVERS , 1981 .

[60]  Robyn M. Dawes,et al.  Suppose We Measured Height With Rating Scales Instead of Rulers , 1977 .

[61]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.