How a couple views their past predicts their future: Predicting divorce from an oral history interview.

A longitudinal study of 52 married couples is reported. A principal components analysis was used to select nine Time 1 variables based on a couple s behavior during an oral history interview. These variables were able to significantly predict which couples would separate or divorce or remain intact upon 3-year follow-up. A discriminant function analysis showed that the oral history variables could predict divorce or marital stability with approximately 94% accuracy. The oral history variables also correlated in clear ways with Time I marital interaction in both problem solving and affect, the couple's physiological reactivity during marital interaction, as well as Time 1 and Time 2 marital satisfaction. Despite the correlation of oral history variables with Time 1 marital satisfaction, in a discriminant function analysis, Time 1 marital satisfaction variables alone resulted in a nonsignificant canonical correlation coefficient in the prediction of divorce.

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