Wind power forecasting at Transmission System Operator's control room

This paper focuses on a wind power forecast monitoring system for the need of a Transmission System Operator, using a case of Finland as an example. Wind power monitoring tool development was done closely with the operators from the TSO's control room to make sure all information needed for system operation was captured. The system operators highlighted the need for simple graphical views, with warnings for events like ramps and uncertainty metrics. Uncertainty was captured with probabilistic forecasts of wind power with 95 % exceedance level. More detailed information on wind power forecasts locally and regionally are needed for congestion management. The user experience showed the importance of accuracy of input Scada data - warnings for dubious data are needed. The forecasting and monitoring tool would need to be integrated to the other tools in control room in future.

[1]  Zhi Zhou,et al.  Dynamic Scheduling of Operating Reserves in Co-Optimized Electricity Markets With Wind Power , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[2]  Dilek Küçük,et al.  Enhanced Nationwide Wind-Electric Power Monitoring and Forecast System , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics.

[3]  Sami Repo,et al.  Prediction errors and balancing costs for wind power production in Finland , 2006 .

[4]  Robin Girard,et al.  Forecasting ramps of wind power production with numerical weather prediction ensembles , 2013 .

[5]  Gregor Giebel,et al.  The State-Of-The-Art in Short-Term Prediction of Wind Power. A Literature Overview , 2003 .

[6]  M. G. Lobo,et al.  SIPREÓLICO-WIND POWER PREDICTION TOOL FOR THE SPANISH PENINSULAR POWER SYSTEM , 2004 .

[7]  Pierre Pinson,et al.  Wind Energy: Forecasting Challenges for Its Operational Management , 2013, 1312.6471.

[8]  Beatrice Greaves,et al.  Temporal Forecast Uncertainty for Ramp Events , 2009 .

[9]  P. Pinson,et al.  Trading Wind Generation From Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[10]  R. J. Bessa,et al.  Reserve Setting and Steady-State Security Assessment Using Wind Power Uncertainty Forecast: A Case Study , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[11]  N. Menemenlis,et al.  Computation of Dynamic Operating Balancing Reserve for Wind Power Integration for the Time-Horizon 1–48 Hours , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[12]  Vladimiro Miranda,et al.  Application of probabilistic wind power forecasting in electricity markets , 2013 .