Experimental Design for Learning Causal Graphs with Latent Variables

We consider the problem of learning causal structures with latent variables using interventions. Our objective is not only to learn the causal graph between the observed variables, but to locate unobserved variables that could confound the relationship between observables. Our approach is stage-wise: We first learn the observable graph, i.e., the induced graph between observable variables. Next we learn the existence and location of the latent variables given the observable graph. We propose an efficient randomized algorithm that can learn the observable graph using O(d\log^2 n) interventions where d is the degree of the graph. We further propose an efficient deterministic variant which uses O(log n + l) interventions, where l is the longest directed path in the graph. Next, we propose an algorithm that uses only O(d^2 log n) interventions that can learn the latents between both non-adjacent and adjacent variables. While a naive baseline approach would require O(n^2) interventions, our combined algorithm can learn the causal graph with latents using O(d log^2 n + d^2 log (n)) interventions.

[1]  Marthe Bonamy,et al.  Strong edge coloring sparse graphs , 2015, Electron. Notes Discret. Math..

[2]  Mikko Koivisto,et al.  Ancestor Relations in the Presence of Unobserved Variables , 2011, ECML/PKDD.

[3]  Richard Scheines,et al.  Learning the Structure of Linear Latent Variable Models , 2006, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[4]  Alfred V. Aho,et al.  The Transitive Reduction of a Directed Graph , 1972, SIAM J. Comput..

[5]  Elias Bareinboim,et al.  Causal Inference by Surrogate Experiments: z-Identifiability , 2012, UAI.

[6]  Thomas S. Richardson,et al.  Towards Characterizing Markov Equivalence Classes for Directed Acyclic Graphs with Latent Variables , 2005, UAI.

[7]  Elias Bareinboim,et al.  Causal inference and the data-fusion problem , 2016, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[8]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Nonlinear causal discovery with additive noise models , 2008, NIPS.

[9]  Peter Bühlmann,et al.  Two Optimal Strategies for Active Learning of Causal Models from Interventions , 2012, ArXiv.

[10]  R. Scheines,et al.  Interventions and Causal Inference , 2007, Philosophy of Science.

[11]  G. Katona On separating systems of a finite set , 1966 .

[12]  Po-Ling Loh,et al.  High-dimensional learning of linear causal networks via inverse covariance estimation , 2013, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[13]  Tom Heskes,et al.  Causal discovery in multiple models from different experiments , 2010, NIPS.

[14]  Jiji Zhang,et al.  Causal Reasoning with Ancestral Graphs , 2008, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[15]  J. Mooij,et al.  Joint Causal Inference on Observational and Experimental Datasets , 2016, ArXiv.

[16]  Frederick Eberhardt,et al.  Experiment selection for causal discovery , 2013, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[17]  Frederick Eberhardt,et al.  Discovering Cyclic Causal Models with Latent Variables: A General SAT-Based Procedure , 2013, UAI.

[18]  P. Spirtes,et al.  Causation, prediction, and search , 1993 .

[19]  Judea Pearl,et al.  An Algorithm for Deciding if a Set of Observed Independencies Has a Causal Explanation , 1992, UAI.

[20]  Peter Bühlmann,et al.  Characterization and Greedy Learning of Interventional Markov Equivalence Classes of Directed Acyclic Graphs (Abstract) , 2011, UAI.

[21]  Aapo Hyvärinen,et al.  A Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model for Causal Discovery , 2006, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[22]  Ioannis Tsamardinos,et al.  Constraint-based causal discovery from multiple interventions over overlapping variable sets , 2014, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[23]  J. Pearl Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference , 2000 .

[24]  Jonas Peters,et al.  Causal inference by using invariant prediction: identification and confidence intervals , 2015, 1501.01332.

[25]  J. Peters,et al.  Identifiability of Gaussian structural equation models with equal error variances , 2012, 1205.2536.

[26]  Jiji Zhang,et al.  On the completeness of orientation rules for causal discovery in the presence of latent confounders and selection bias , 2008, Artif. Intell..

[27]  Alexandros G. Dimakis,et al.  Learning Causal Graphs with Small Interventions , 2015, NIPS.

[28]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Removing systematic errors for exoplanet search via latent causes , 2015, ICML.

[29]  Alexandros G. Dimakis,et al.  Cost-Optimal Learning of Causal Graphs , 2017, ICML.

[30]  J. Pearl,et al.  Causal Inference in Statistics: A Primer , 2016 .

[31]  Alexandros G. Dimakis,et al.  Entropic Causal Inference , 2016, AAAI.

[32]  Bernard Manderick,et al.  Learning Semi-Markovian Causal Models using Experiments , 2006, Probabilistic Graphical Models.

[33]  Christina Heinze-Deml,et al.  Causal Structure Learning , 2017, 1706.09141.

[34]  Noga Alon,et al.  Covering graphs by the minimum number of equivalence relations , 1986, Comb..

[35]  Karthikeyan Shanmugam,et al.  Learning Causal Graphs with Latent Variables , 2017, NIPS 2017.