Naval Forces and Civil-Military Relations

While the importance of navies for international affairs is widely documented, their influence in domestic politics remains less well understood. This research offers the first comparative account of how states? naval forces affect civil-military relations. Does the navy matter for military attempts to seize government power? The urban population and, especially, middle class elements in the capital city are potentially more capable (if willing) to create the conditions for the armed forces to overthrow the government. Because naval forces are more strongly linked to these societal elements due to recruitment practice and the location of their bases, countries with a larger navy in relation to the army could be more likely to see coups d?�tat. The empirical findings, based on the analysis of time-series cross-section data on a sample of all states between 1970 and 2007, provide strong support for the theory. Several robustness checks further increase the confidence in the results.

[1]  J. Beall,et al.  Cities and Conflict in Fragile States in the Developing World , 2013 .

[2]  Isaiah Wilson,et al.  Rage Against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in Counterinsurgency Wars , 2009, International Organization.

[3]  Milan W. Svolik The Politics of Authoritarian Rule , 2012 .

[4]  George Kingsley Zipf,et al.  National unity and disunity : the nation as a bio-social organism , 1941 .

[5]  Jonathan M Powell Determinants of the Attempting and Outcome of Coups d’état , 2012 .

[6]  E. Hobsbawm Revolutionaries; contemporary essays , 1973 .

[7]  P. Feaver Command and Control in Emerging Nuclear Nations , 1992 .

[8]  J. Wallace,et al.  Citizen Loyalty, Mass Protest and Authoritarian Survival * , 2008 .

[9]  Mark Ensalaco Chile Under Pinochet: Recovering the Truth , 1999 .

[10]  Benjamin O. Fordham The Politics of Threat Perception and the Use of Force: A Political Economy Model of U.S. Uses of Force, 1949–1994 , 1998 .

[11]  M. Spooner Soldiers in a Narrow Land: The Pinochet Regime in Chile , 1994 .

[12]  Branislav L. Slantchev,et al.  The Guardianship Dilemma: Regime Security through and from the Armed Forces , 2015, American Political Science Review.

[13]  Ekim Arbatli,et al.  External threats and political survival: Can dispute involvement deter coup attempts? , 2016 .

[14]  A. Stephan The Military in Politics. Changing Patterns in Brazil , 1972 .

[15]  July Powell Robert,et al.  Nuclear Deterrence Theory, Nuclear Proliferation, and National Missile Defense , 2003 .

[16]  M. Toft The Geography of Ethnic Violence , 2010 .

[17]  W. Thompson Organizational Cohesion and Military Coup Outcomes , 1976 .

[18]  Judith A. Teichman The Role of the Middle Class in Distributional Outcomes: Chile and South Korea , 2015 .

[19]  Arthur S. Banks Cross-national time-series data archive , 2006 .

[20]  Brett Allen Casper,et al.  Popular Protest and Elite Coordination in a Coup d’état , 2014, The Journal of Politics.

[21]  Benjamin O. Fordham A Very Sharp Sword , 2004 .

[22]  C. Thyne,et al.  Coup d’état or Coup d'Autocracy? How Coups Impact Democratization, 1950–2008 , 2014 .

[23]  Eric Heginbotham The Fall and Rise of Navies in East Asia: Military Organizations, Domestic Politics, and Grand Strategy , 2002, International Security.

[24]  Randolph M. Siverson,et al.  The Logic of Political Survival , 2003 .

[25]  E. Moncada The Politics of Urban Violence: Challenges for Development in the Global South , 2013 .

[26]  M. Janowitz Military Institutions and Coercion in the Developing Nations , 1977 .

[27]  John F. Clark,et al.  Does Democratization Reduce the Risk of Military Interventions in Politics in Africa? , 2008 .

[28]  Sawa Omori,et al.  Causes and Triggers of Coups d'état: An Event History Analysis , 2013 .

[29]  Douglas M. Gibler,et al.  US professional military education and democratization abroad , 2010 .

[30]  A. Belkin,et al.  Toward a Structural Understanding of Coup Risk , 2003 .

[31]  T. Böhmelt,et al.  The Impact of Institutional Coup-Proofing on Coup Attempts and Coup Outcomes , 2015 .

[32]  Nathaniel Beck,et al.  Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable , 1998 .

[33]  P. Feaver CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS1 , 1999 .

[34]  P. Roessler The Enemy Within: Personal Rule, Coups, and Civil War in Africa , 2011 .

[35]  Robert L. Scheina Latin America's wars , 2003 .

[36]  Ronald Wintrobe,et al.  The political economy of dictatorship , 1998 .

[37]  A. Belkin United We Stand?: Divide-and-Conquer Politics and the Logic of International Hostility , 2005 .

[38]  B. Geddes,et al.  Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set , 2014, Perspectives on Politics.

[39]  T. Böhmelt,et al.  Do Democracies Engage Less in Coup-Proofing? On the Relationship between Regime Type and Civil—Military Relations , 2012 .

[40]  Caitlin Talmadge,et al.  When War Helps Civil–military Relations , 2016 .

[41]  Jonathan M Powell Regime Vulnerability and the Diversionary Threat of Force , 2014 .

[42]  J. Brown The Military and Society in Greece , 1974, European Journal of Sociology.

[43]  S. Huntington Political Order in Changing Societies , 1969 .

[44]  C. Thyne,et al.  Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset , 2009 .

[45]  Todd S. Sechser,et al.  The Army You Have: The Determinants of Military Mechanization, 1979–2001 , 2010 .

[46]  Tobias Böhmelt,et al.  Coup-Proofing and Military Effectiveness in Interstate Wars, 1967–99 , 2011 .

[47]  Naunihal Singh Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups , 2014 .

[48]  E. Zürcher Turkey : a modern history , 1994 .

[49]  J. Wallace Cities, Redistribution, and Authoritarian Regime Survival , 2011, The Journal of Politics.

[50]  Edward N. Luttwak,et al.  Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook , 1968 .

[51]  A. T. Mahan,et al.  The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660–1783: LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS , 2010 .

[52]  D. Porch The Portuguese Armed Forces and the Revolution , 2021 .

[53]  Mark Souva,et al.  Power at Sea: A Naval Power Dataset, 1865–2011 , 2014 .

[54]  Jonathan D. Caverley,et al.  Military Technology and the Duration of Civil Conflict , 2017 .

[55]  James T. Quinlivan Coup-proofing: Its Practice and Consequences in the Middle East , 1999, International Security.

[56]  Desha M. Girod Reducing postconflict coup risk: The low windfall coup-proofing hypothesis , 2015 .

[57]  H. Urdal,et al.  Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities , 2012 .

[58]  Eric A. Nordlinger Soldiers in Politics: Military Coups and Governments , 1976 .

[59]  A. Perlmutter The Praetorian State and the Praetorian Army : Toward a Taxonomy of Civil-Military Relations in Developing Polities , 1969 .

[60]  Amaney A. Jamal,et al.  Who Participated in the Arab Spring? A Comparison of Egyptian and Tunisian Revolutions , 2012 .

[61]  B. Geddes Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics , 2003 .

[62]  D. Goldsworthy CIVILIAN CONTROL OF THE MILITARY IN BLACK AFRICA , 1981 .

[63]  Dan Reiter Why NATO Enlargement Does Not Spread Democracy , 2001, International Security.

[64]  J. Brown Greek Civil-Military Relations , 1980 .

[65]  C. Thyne The impact of coups d’état on civil war duration , 2017 .

[66]  Harold A. Trinkunas,et al.  Crafting Civilian Control of the Military in Venezuela , 2005 .

[67]  Jason Wittenberg,et al.  Making the Most Of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation , 2000 .

[68]  K. Gleditsch,et al.  Refugees and the Spread of Civil War , 2006, International Organization.

[69]  Paul Staniland Cities on Fire: Social Mobilization, State Policy, and Urban Insurgency , 2010 .

[70]  D. Hibbs,et al.  Mass Political Violence: A Cross-National Causal Analysis , 1995 .

[71]  Kristen A. Harkness The Ethnic Army and the State , 2016 .