A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function

Seismic risk is typically quantified probabilistically for a single asset or evaluated through regional loss assessment for selected earthquake events. Ideally, a recurrence relationship for a loss quantity, economic loss or casualty, can be obtained for risk-informed decision-making. This can be achieved by a fully stochastic approach, for which a large amount of input information is required, whilst there is usually a lack of transparency that might hinder repeatability of the outputs. Hence, the objective of this paper is to introduce a simple and unambiguous procedure for developing parametric societal risk function based on rigorous loss modelling of response-specific probabilistic scenarios. This is then illustrated for the Greater Melbourne Region with fatality as the loss quantity. The proposed semi-probabilistic procedure can be extended to other loss quantities, as well as evaluating societal risk of other natural hazards or multiple hazards.

[1]  Sergio I. Molina,et al.  Estimating the confidence of earthquake damage scenarios: examples from a logic tree approach , 2007 .

[2]  James E. Daniell,et al.  Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software (OPAL) , 2011 .

[3]  Friedemann Wenzel,et al.  Residual fatality risk estimates for setting earthquake safety requirement , 2017 .

[4]  W. Milne,et al.  Distribution of earthquake risk in Canada , 1969 .

[5]  C. Starr.  Social benefit versus technological risk. , 1969, Science.

[6]  Dominik H. Lang,et al.  A Next-Generation Open-Source Tool for Earthquake Loss Estimation , 2017 .

[7]  Dominik H. Lang,et al.  SELENA - An open-source tool for seismic risk and loss assessment using a logic tree computation procedure , 2010, Comput. Geosci..

[8]  Julian J. Bommer,et al.  The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model , 2005 .

[9]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Probabilistic Earthquake Scenarios: Extending Risk Analysis Methodologies to Spatially Distributed Systems , 2000 .

[10]  B. Gaull,et al.  Probabilistic earthquake risk maps of Australia , 1990 .

[11]  S. M. Burroughs,et al.  The Upper-Truncated Power Law Applied to Earthquake Cumulative Frequency-Magnitude Distributions: Evidence for a Time-Independent Scaling Parameter , 2002 .

[12]  M. Leonard,et al.  Regional variations in neotectonic fault behaviour in Australia , as they pertain to the seismic hazard in capital cities , 2014 .

[13]  B J M Ale,et al.  Tolerable or Acceptable: A Comparison of Risk Regulation in the United Kingdom and in the Netherlands , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[14]  Peter Tanner,et al.  Acceptable risks to persons associated with building structures , 2015 .

[15]  Adrian M. Chandler,et al.  Site-Specific Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessment: Direct Amplitude-Based Approach , 2006 .

[16]  F. Wenzel,et al.  THE GLOBAL ROLE OF EARTHQUAKE FATALITIES IN DECISION- MAKING: EARTHQUAKES VERSUS OTHER CAUSES OF FATALITIES , 2016 .

[17]  Friedemann Wenzel,et al.  Setting structural safety requirement for controlling earthquake mortality risk , 2016 .

[18]  Friedemann Wenzel,et al.  Influence of ground-motion correlation on probabilistic assessments of seismic hazard and loss: sensitivity analysis , 2011 .

[19]  N. Null.  Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures , 2003 .

[20]  Robert W. Graves,et al.  Source and ground motion models of Australian earthquakes , 2009 .

[21]  Rachel A. Davidson,et al.  Optimizing the selection of hazard-consistent probabilistic scenarios for long-term regional hurricane loss estimation , 2010 .

[22]  Helen Crowley,et al.  Risk-targeted Hazard Maps for Europe , 2014 .

[23]  N. A. Abrahamson,et al.  Earthquake Engineering October 12-17 , 2008 , Beijing , China ESTIMATING GROUND-MOTION VARIABILITY : ISSUES , INSIGHTS & CHALLENGES , 2008 .

[24]  J. Vrijling,et al.  An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage. , 2003, Journal of hazardous materials.

[25]  Rachel A. Davidson,et al.  Identification of Optimization-Based Probabilistic Earthquake Scenarios for Regional Loss Estimation , 2012 .

[26]  Matjaž Dolšek,et al.  Risk‐based seismic design for collapse safety , 2016 .

[27]  Peter Fajfar,et al.  Capacity spectrum method based on inelastic demand spectra , 1999 .

[28]  Matjaž Dolšek,et al.  IM-based and EDP-based decision models for the verification of the seismic collapse safety of buildings , 2017 .

[29]  M. Leonard.  Earthquake Fault Scaling: Self‐Consistent Relating of Rupture Length, Width, Average Displacement, and Moment Release , 2010 .

[30]  James E. Daniell,et al.  Development of socio-economic fragility functions for use in worldwide rapid earthquake loss estimation procedures , 2014 .

[31]  D. A Jones.  Nomenclature for hazard and risk assessment in the process industries , 1994 .

[32]  D. Wells,et al.  New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement , 1994, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[33]  Francesco Mulargia,et al.  Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used? , 2017, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors.

[34]  Rui Pinho,et al.  Development of the OpenQuake engine, the Global Earthquake Model’s open-source software for seismic risk assessment , 2014, Natural Hazards.

[35]  R. Spence,et al.  Earthquake Protection: Coburn/Earthquake Protection, Second Edition , 2006 .

[36]  K. Aki.  17. Maximum Likelihood Estimate of b in the Formula logN=a-bM and its Confidence Limits , 1965 .

[37]  Friedemann Wenzel,et al.  The seismic hazard of Australia – a venture into an uncertain future , 2015 .

[38]  Nelson Lam,et al.  Minimum loading requirements for areas of low seismicity , 2016 .

[39]  Thomas Ulrich,et al.  Risk-targeted seismic design maps for mainland France , 2013, Natural Hazards.

[40]  A. W. Coburn.  Factors determining human casualty levels in earthquakes : Motality prediction in building collapse , 1992 .

[41]  B J Ale,et al.  Standard methods for land-use planning to determine the effects on societal risk. , 2000, Journal of hazardous materials.

[42]  Global Facility for Disaster Reduction.  Understanding Risk : Review of Open Source and Open Access Software Packages Available to Quanify Risk from Natural Hazards , 2014 .

[43]  Nelson Lam,et al.  Development of the new Australian earthquake loading standard , 2008 .

[44]  Satoshi Tanaka,et al.  System Risk Curves: Probabilistic Performance Scenarios for Highway Networks Subject to Earthquake Damage , 2007 .

[45]  R. Goel,et al.  Capacity-Demand-Diagram Methods Based on Inelastic Design Spectrum , 1999 .

[46]  Robert J. Geller,et al.  Why earthquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it , 2012 .

[47]  Gregory G. Deierlein,et al.  Using Collapse Risk Assessments to Inform Seismic Safety Policy for Older Concrete Buildings , 2012 .