Session: 28 - Climate Change and Air Pollution: The Role of non-CO2 Atmospheric Pollutants Oral Presentations

Climate change is one of the main threats to mankind. The European Union is committed to limit the global temperature increase to 2 degrees, relative to pre-industrial levels. To meet this goal, the European Commission has analyzed greenhouse gas reduction scenarios using the partial equilibrium model POLES to analyze changes in energy use. The greenhouse gas reduction scenario assumes dedicated policies that result in fuel and technology shifts, and most importantly energy savings. As a result not only greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions change (-25 % by 2050 compared to 1990), but also the emissions of air pollutants decrease. This is beneficial for air quality, but also causes a net warming of climate, since removal of aerosols leads to an increased radiative forcing (RF). Air pollution and GHG policies are often developed independently. To limit the effects of the burning of fossil fuels and biomass on the deterioration of air quality, human health and vegetation, many developed countries have issued stringent regulations and it is likely that developing countries will follow. We assume that by 2030 the world will have implemented the technology according to the European National Emission Ceiling Directive for 2020. These technologies and measures often encompass cleaner fuels and modern techniques, leading to less energy use. We consider the